Monday , October 26 2020
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Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

Articles by Marc Chandler

FX Daily, October 23: Disappointing PMIs may Sharpen ECB’s Dovishness but the Euro Remains Firm

3 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.071

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The US dollar is finishing the week on a soft note, falling against all the major currencies. On the week, it is off by at least one percent against most of them, with the Australian and Canadian dollars and Japanese yen, laggards, rising 0.5%-0.75%. Emerging market currencies are largely participating, as well. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index up almost 1% this week. Turkey, where the central bank disappointed participants by not hiking the one-week repo rate yesterday but hiked the arguably more relevant late loan window by150 bp to14.75%, was not enough to prevent

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FX Daily, October 22: Greenback Stabilizes

4 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.11% to 1.0723
 

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Two sets of talks have riveted attention, and both appeared to have made progress yesterday. After some words, the EC, recognizing the importance of UK sovereignty, UK Prime Minister Johnson signaled a resumption of trade talks. In the US, Pelosi and Mnuchin appear to be on the verge of a deal. The dollar is consolidating yesterday’s losses. Equities are lower, and benchmark yields are little changed. Sterling, which jumped 1.8%, the most in seven months, stalled near $1.3180, is softer today, as are most of the majors, but the New Zealand and Canadian dollars are slightly

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FX Daily, October 21: Dollar Slumps as Yields Rise

5 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro is stable by 0.00% to 1.072

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The dollar is falling against most of the world’s currencies today, even as long-term yields rise to the most in four months and drags global yields higher. The US 10-year yield is pushing above 0.80%, and the 30-year is above 1.60%. Many are linking the backup in yields to prospects of additional fiscal support. European benchmark 10-year yields are 2-4 bp higher. China’s bond yield slipped marginally. Sterling and the Norwegian krone are leading the majors higher. The greenback has slipped below JPY105, and the euro reached $1.1870, its highest level in a month. Most emerging

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FX Daily, October 20: Narrowly Mixed Markets as Clearer Direction Sought

6 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.11% to 1.0721

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The capital markets lack a clear direction today. This is reflected in narrowly mixed equities, bonds, and currencies. The spreading contagion is giving rise to new economic concerns, among other things, and the UK-EU talks are struggling to resume, while Pelosi-Mnuchin talks in the US continue to drag.  In the Asia Pacific region, Japan, Taiwan, and Australian bourses led declines, while China, Honk Kong, South Korea, and India advanced. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is straddling little changed levels, while US shares recoup part of the losses suffered late yesterday. US and

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FX Daily, October 19: Sterling Sparkles in Dollar Setback

7 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.04% to 1.0715

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview:  Investors have not let the surge of the virus or uncertainty over the UK-EU talks or US fiscal stimulus to stand in their way. Sterling is leading the major currencies higher, returning to the $1.30 area, while global equities are trading higher. In the Asia Pacific region, Chinese shares, and Thailand, where large-scale protests continue, bucked the move higher, led by more than 1% gain in Japan and Taiwan. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is pushing higher (~0.5%) for the second consecutive session while the S&P 500 is trading near the pre-weekend high. Bond yields are mostly

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FX Daily, October 16: Deja Vu All Over Again

10 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.02% to 1.0712

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: It was like deja vu all over again. First, the market reacted immodestly to headlines indicating there was little chance of pre-election fiscal stimulus in the US. It was hardly new news. Then the market seemed to react with surprise that there was no last-minute breakthrough in the UK-EU trade negotiations. Prime Minister Johnson could abandon the talks, but his chief negotiator had already judged that a deal was still possible, and this seems to allow negotiations to continue. The firm close in US equities failed to carry over much to Asia Pacific trading earlier today. Only Hong

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FX Daily, October 15: Markets Shake and Dollar Goes Bid

11 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has stable by 0.00% to 1.0733

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: A combination of the surging virus, threatening the slow recovery that was already losing momentum, the lack of new stimulus in the US, and market positioning is seeing risk unwind in a big way today. Equities are selling off. Led by a 2% drop in Hong Kong, Asia Pacific equities tumbled, with the exception of Australia, where signals from the central bank suggested more easing may be around the corner. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off for a third day, but the nearly 2.2% decline is the largest drop since September 21. US shares are also lower. The S&P 500 closed the gap from

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FX Daily, October 14: UK Blinks on Threat to Walk Away on Eve of EU Summit

12 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.0729

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Turn around Tuesday saw the dollar bounce, particularly against the Australian dollar and European currencies, among the majors. Sterling pared earlier losses on reports that the UK would not walk away from the talks just yet, while the euro remains on its back foot. Emerging market currencies are mixed, leaving the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index nursing small losses for the third consecutive session. The precious metals tumbled yesterday but have also steadied today, with gold near $1900. Led by the real estate and financials, the S&P 500 snapped a four-day advance

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FX Daily, October 13: Markets Look for Fresh Incentives

13 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.08% to 1.073

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ gapped higher for the third consecutive session and continued to advance. The benchmarks reached their best level since early September. Hong Kong markets were closed due to a storm, but the MSCI Asia Pacific gained for the seventh consecutive session. Most markets were higher, though Taiwan and South Korea were exceptions. European stocks are struggling a bit, and the consolidative tone is threatening to end the three-day advance. European yields are softer, and the peripheral yields are slipping to new record lows, and premiums over German continue to

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FX Daily, October 12: Yuan in Spotlight in Consolidative Session

14 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.0738

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Led by 2-3% gains in Hong Kong and China, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the sixth consecutive session is pressing against the high for the year. European stocks are firmer, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up around 0.5% near midday, and shares are also trading firmer. The strong close before the weekend warns of the risk of a gap higher opening, which would be the third in a row, a cautionary sign of an over-extended market in some technical analysis. While the US stock market is open today, the US and Canadian bond markets are closed for national holidays. European bond

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FX Daily, October 9: Animal Spirits Return

17 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.10% to 1.0768

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The on-again-off-again fiscal stimulus in the US is back on as the White House now supports a broad stimulus program, but not as big as the Democrats $2.2 trillion package. It is the narrative being cited as the rebuilding of risk appetites is the wobble earlier in the week. Chinese markets re-opened with a bang. Shanghai led the Asia Pacific bourses higher with a 1.7% gain, and the onshore yuan rose 1.1%, a bit more than expected after a favorable fix by the PBOC. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 moved above the 200-day moving average yesterday and remains above it today.  It is up

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FX Daily, October 08: Markets Catch Collective Breath

18 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.05% to 1.0781

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at their highest levels in around a month yesterday, recouping Tuesday’s presidential tweet-driven drop. We thought the market overreacted to the end of the fiscal talks as many had already recognized that a stimulus agreement was unlikely before the election, but the near round-trip seen in stocks and bonds was surprising. The dollar surrendered the lion’s share of the gains it had registered, and the US 10 and 30-year yields approached four-month highs. Led by more than 1% gains in Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, and India, the MSCI Asia Pacific

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FX Daily, October 07: The Day After

19 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.18% to 1.0785

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 07(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: President Trump’s tweet announced that negotiations with the House Democrat leadership had collapsed, and there will be no further talks until after the election. Many economists had been removing it from their Q4 GDP projections, but the market was caught wrongfooted. Risk came off. Equities were sold. Emerging markets were sold, and the dollar and yen were bought. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ were at session highs and reversed to session lows, and the yield curve stopped steepening. However, the ripple effect has been mild, and the dollar’s gains have been pared. Most equity markets

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FX Daily, October 6: The Dollar Tests Key Supports and Pauses

20 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.0776

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: investing.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Market moves have stalled. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index did manage to extend Monday’s gains, but other markets are heavier. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day advance. The communications sector is the sole standout, though financials and energy are little changed. Most sectors are lower.  US shares are also paring yesterday’s gain. The sell-off in US Treasuries, the most in a month, stopped, and the US 10-year yield is a couple of basis points lower near 0.76%. European benchmark yields are slightly lower, while the yields in the Asia Pacific played catch-up after

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FX Daily, October 05: Monday’s Dollar Blues

21 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.05% to 1.0782

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: New actions to contain the virus are being taken in the US and Europe, but investors are looking past it and taking equities and risk assets, in general, higher to start the new week. MSCI Asia Pacific recouped most of last week’s 0.7% loss with gains of move than 1% in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Australia. Coming fiscal support helped lift the Australian market by more than 2.5%. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up for a third consecutive session and is nearing the 200-day moving average that has checked the benchmark over the last three months. US shares are trading

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October Monthly

23 days ago

After falling in July and August, the US dollar strengthened against most of the major currencies in September.  The dramatic pullback in equities seemed to have undergirded the yen’s resilience, which gained a net 0.25% against the dollar.  However, the dollar’s broadly firmer tone appears corrective and consolidative in nature and coincided with the downturn in equities, especially high flying US tech shares.  Risk assets, in general, succumbed to profit-taking amid increased tensions between the US and China on the one hand, and China and Taiwan on the other. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index fell by about 2.25%, the largest monthly decline since March’s 8.4% drop.
There is a resurgence of the virus in several parts of Europe, including the UK, the

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FX Daily, October 2: POTUS Infected: Is this the October Surprise?

24 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.0784

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Before a US election, there is often speculation of a last-minute game-changing development. News earlier today that the US President and his wife have tested positive for the Covid virus has injected a new unknown into not only the US election but the markets as well. Many centers in Asia (China, HK, Taiwan, South Korea, and India) remain closed, while Australia and Japan surrendered early gains. European shares have recouped some of the initial sharper losses, and near midday the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.6% to hold on to about a 1.2% gain for the week. US shares are

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FX Daily, October 1: Hope Springs Eternal

25 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.10% to 1.0779

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 1(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Speculation that a new round of fiscal stimulus from the US is possible is encouraging risk-taking today.  Many large Asian centers were closed for holidays today, and a technical problem prevented the Tokyo Stock Exchange from opening. Nevertheless, the markets that were open rose by 1% or more, including Australia and India. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 firmed to new nine-day highs, and US shares are trading with an upside bias as well. Benchmark 10-year yields are firmer with the US yield near 69 bp. The dollar is mostly softer, though the yen and sterling are struggling.  The

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FX Daily, September 30: Nervous Calm

26 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.05% to 1.0798

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Quarter and month-end considerations could be overwhelming other factors today. Turnaround Tuesday saw early gains in US equities fade. Asia Pacific shares were mixed, with the Nikkei (-1.5%) and Australia (-2.3%) bear the brunt of the selling, while China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India rose. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is lower for a second day, but unlike yesterday, energy and financials are among the strongest sectors.  US shares are extended yesterday’s losses, and the S&P 500 is off around 0.75%. Some link the selling to the US presidential debate, which did not showcase the

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FX Daily, September 29: Consolidation Still Featured

27 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.05% to 1.0787

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: A consolidative tone continues across the capital markets. Equities have lost their momentum. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was mixed, while Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is paring yesterday’s sharp 2.2% gain. US shares are little changed but mostly softer. Benchmark 10-year yields are 1-2 basis points lower in Europe, and the US 10-year is steady around 65 bp. The dollar is narrow ranges, mostly a bit softer, led by the Antipodeans and British pound, which has been resilient in recent days. The yen is nursing small losses. The liquid accessible emerging market currencies, like the

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FX Daily, September 28: Stocks Recover while the Greenback Consolidates

28 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.23% to 1.0822

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 28 Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Following the strong finish in the US before the weekend, global equities are paring last week’s slide. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to for a second session. Markets in Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and India rose by more than 1%. China and Australia were notable exceptions. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is gapped slightly higher and hasn’t looked back. Its 1.85% gain in the morning, if sustained, would be the largest advance since early August. US shares are also trading more than 1% better, pointing to a gap higher opening. Interest has been drained from the debt market, where the US 10-year is hovering around 67

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FX Daily, September 25: Sentiment Remains Fragile Ahead of the Weekend

September 25, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.13% to 1.0801

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The dramatic week is finishing on a quieter note. The modest gains in US equities yesterday helped the Asia Pacific performance today. Most markets but China and Hong Kong pared the weekly losses, and easing regulations in Australia spurred a rally in financials that saw its stock market close higher on the week. However, the coattails were not long enough to lift Europe. A record number of virus cases in the UK and France dampened the mood, and most markets are off around 0.5%, and US shares are also trading with a heavier bias.  European benchmark 10-year yields are 1-2 bp

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FX Daily, September 24: Darkest Before Dawn

September 24, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.07% to 1.0779

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The two recent market developments, push lower in stocks, and higher in the dollar is continuing. Tuesday’s gains in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were unwound on Wednesday and this is helping drag global markets lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fourth consecutive session today and many markets (India, Shenzhen, Taiwan, and Korea) fell more than 2% and most others were off more than 1%. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is giving back the past two days’ gains. The S&P 500 could gap lower at the open. Benchmark 10-year yields are a little softer but have remained subdued in

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FX Daily, September 23: Trying to Find Solid Ground

September 23, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.0769

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: A more stable tone is evident in the capital markets after the S&P 500, and NASDAQ rose more than one percent yesterday. Japan returned from a two-day holiday, and local shares slipped fractionally, while China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Australian shares rallied. India and Taiwan fell. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up around 1.5% near midday in Europe, its biggest gain in two weeks. US shares are extending yesterday’s gains. Soft preliminary PMI readings are helping to support the debt market, where benchmark 10-year yields are off 1-2 bp in Europe. The US 10-year is little

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FX Daily, September 21: Risk Appetites Join Tokyo on Vacation

September 21, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.45% to 1.0751

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Global equity markets are off to a poor start to the week, and the dollar appears to be enjoying a safe-haven bid. Tokyo markets are closed until Wednesday, while Asia-Pacific stocks tumbled, and the regional index is unwinding last week’s gains. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off around 2.7% near midday in Europe. It is the third down session and looks to be the biggest loss in tat lest three months. US shares are also trading around 2% lower. Bond markets are bid, except the periphery of Europe, and the US 10-year yields are about 66 bp. The dollar is strengthening against most of

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FX Daily, September 18: When Every Thing is Said and Done, More is Said than Done

September 18, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.13% to 1.0775

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ).

FX Rates
Overview: Asia Pacific equities have taken the march on the US. Led by a 2% rally in Shanghai, most regional markets but Australia closed the week with gains.  A two-week fall in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has been snapped. European stocks are little changed, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is holding on to its second week of gains. It is in the middle of the 360-380 range that has confined it here in Q3. US shares are also largely flat in Europe, and the S&P 500 is up about 0.5% this week coming into today. Benchmark bonds yields are slightly softer on Europe today, but the real takeaway this week is the nearly flat performance of

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FX Daily, September 17: Powell Lets Steam Out of Equities and Spurs Dollar Short-Covering

September 17, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.02% to 1.0743

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Profit-taking after the FOMC meeting saw US equities and gold sell-off. The high degree of uncertainty without fresh stimulus did not win investors’ confidence. The Fed signaled rates would likely not be hiked for the next three years, and without additional measures, that appears to be the essence of the switch to an average inflation target. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a five-day advance, with several markets (Australia, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Malaysia off over 1%). The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is ending a four-day rally and has halved this week’s gains with

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FX Daily, September 16: Dollar Eases Ahead of the FOMC

September 16, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.04% to 1.0751

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The dollar has been sold against nearly all the world’s currencies ahead of what is expected to be a dovish Federal Reserve, even if no fresh action is taken. The Scandis and Antipodean currencies are leading the majors. The South African rand and Mexican peso are leading the emerging markets currencies higher, and the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is stronger for the fourth consecutive session. Equity markets are mostly higher, though, in Asia, China, Hong Kong, and South Korean markets saw profit-taking. Australia, Taiwan, and Australia rallied more than 1%.

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FX Daily, September 15: The Dollar Softens Ahead of the FOMC

September 15, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.19% to 1.0755

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The capital markets are relatively quiet so far today as the FOMC meeting gets underway. Equity markets in the Asia Pacific region, but Japan and Australia advanced, and the regional benchmark rose for the fourth consecutive session. European stocks are a little firmer. The three-day advance has lifted the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 by about 1.0%. US shares are trading higher, and the S&P 500 is poised to gap higher. Benchmark 10-year yields 1-2 bp higher in Europe, and the US 10-year is little changed near 68 bp. The dollar is heavy. The euro traded at $1.19, and the dollar has been

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FX Daily, September 14: UK Presses Ahead, China Strikes Out at German Pork Producers, and Moody’s Weighs on Turkey

September 14, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.07% to 1.0762

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: A flurry of deals, including the still-evolving Oracle-TikTok tie-up, helped lift equity markets in the Asia Pacific region.  South Korea’s Kospi, and Indonesia, which had been battered last week, led the advance. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the third consecutive sessions. European bourses are little changed while US stocks are firmer. The S&P 500 could gap higher at the open. Benchmark bond yields are 1-3 bp lower in Europe, and the periphery is doing better than the core. The US 10-year yield is near 66 bp. The dollar is mostly lower, though the Australian is an

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