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Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

Articles by Marc Chandler

FX Daily, January 13: PBOC Sends Signal as Market Looks Past Impeachment Vote

3 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.22% to 1.0792

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The US dollar is regaining ground lost in yesterday’s setback against the major currencies. Sterling is the notable exception. It was toying with the $1.37 area, perhaps helped by the Governor of the Bank of England signal that there still are hurdles to adopting negative interest rates, which the futures market is still discounting for as soon as midyear. The US 10-year yield that reached 1.18% yesterday before slipping is now back to around 1.12%, which has taken off pressure from the other major bond markets and yields a little lower. Even in Italy, where the government is

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FX Daily, January 12: Markets Catch Collective Breath

4 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.04% to 1.081

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The capital markets were stabilizing today after dramatic moves yesterday. Equity markets are recovering, and the dollar is paring yesterday’s gains. Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose, though Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia were notable exceptions. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is posting a small gain, which, if retained, would be the fifth gain in seven sessions.  US shares are higher after snapping a four-day advance yesterday. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly firmer 3-4 bp among the Antipodeans, and 1-3 bp in Europe, where political anxiety is seeing

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FX Daily, January 11: Greenback Extends Recovery

5 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.04% to 1.0816

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Julius Ceasar is said to have “crossed the Rubicon” on January 10, 49 BCE, taking the 13th Legion into Rome, defying orders from the Senate, and precipitating the Roman Civil Wat that marked the end of the republic and the birth of the empire. Last week’s events paled in comparison despite the US President urging his supporters to march on Washington and demonstrate its strength. It was the only way the “stolen” landslide election would be secured. His personal lawyer called for “trial by combat” as the mob was fired-up. But rather than join them, as Ceasar did, the leaders

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FX Daily, January 08: Can the Dollar Find Traction Even if the Employment Data Disappoint?

8 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.32% to 1.0825

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 8(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The global equity rally picked up this week as it closed in 2019. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained today and is up in nine of the past 10 sessions. It has fallen only in one week since the end of October. South Korea’s Kospi led today’s advance with a nearly 4% rally on the back of talks that were later played down between Hyundai and Apple. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is at its best level today since last March and is posting gains for the fourth consecutive week. US shares are trading higher after the major benchmarks rallied to new record highs yesterday. The backing up of

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FX Daily, January 7: Dollar Bounces after Insurrection Put Down

9 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.11% to 1.0837

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 7(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: After the National Guard were called to put down an insurrection in Washington, DC, the dollar is having its best day in around a week. The euro’s three-day rally has been halted even though German factory orders surprised on the upside. The greenback is firmer against all the major and most of the emerging market currencies today. Equities are moving higher. All the markets in the Asia Pacific but Hong Kong rallied today after the 8-day advance stalled yesterday. Hong Kong appeared to have been dragged lower by concern that the US would delist Alibaba and Tencent. Europe’s Dow

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FX Daily, January 6: High Drama Weighs on the Greenback and Lifts Yields

10 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.23% to 1.0823

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 6(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview:  One of the two Georgia Senate contests remains too close to call, but the market appears to be pricing in a Democrat sweep. The 10-year yield has punched above 1% but has offered the greenback little support. Yesterday, the dollar-bloc currencies rose to highs since early Q2 2018 and are extending those gains today. The Scandis are also tracking higher. The yen is the laggard, but the greenback remains below JPY103.00  Emerging market currencies have not been deterred by the higher US rates. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is higher for the third consecutive day. The

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FX Daily, January 04: Rising Equities and Slumping Dollar Greet the New Year

12 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.0821

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 4(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The first day of the New Year, but it feels a lot like last year. The dollar is under pressure, and equities are higher. Outside of Japan and Malaysia, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended last week’s 3.6% gain. It has not rallied for seven consecutive sessions. Led by mining and energy, Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 1.5%, which would the largest gain in two months and puts the benchmark at its highest level since last February. US shares are also trading with an upside bias. Benchmark 10-year yields were a little higher in Asia but are off 2-3 bp in Europe. The US 10-year

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January Monthly

13 days ago

It might not feel like a New Year, as the pandemic continues to ravage most countries. On top of the human toll, the economic fallout will continue to depress activity in the first part of 2021.  However, policymakers throughout the G7 provided more stimulus in late 2020 and extended many emergency facilities well into the New Year.  This will help cushion the blow and help facilitate a stronger recovery later in the year.
The two Senate seats in Georgia being contested on January 5 will shape the contours of the additional stimulus expected to be pursued by the new US administration.  To be financed by a common bond, Europe’s new Recovery Fund may be operational by mid-year.   These fiscal efforts will be pro-cyclical in the sense of providing for stimulus as

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Inflating Inflation Expectations

17 days ago

Rising prices feature in many economic forecasts for the US.  It is seen as part of the reflation meme as the vaccines roll out.  There seem to be three threads to the discussion.  The first is practically mathematically certain.  Economists refer to it as the base effect.  As the pandemic struck and the economy shut down, prices fell.  Headline CPI fell by 0.4% in March 2019, by 0.8% in April, and another 0.1% in May.  The PCE deflator, which the Fed targets, fell by 0.3% in March and by 0.5% in April.  It rose by 0.2% in May. The point is the negative prints will drop out of the year-over-year comparisons, and barring a new sharp economic downturn, they will be replaced by higher numbers. This will be reflected in an increase in the year-over-year rate and

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Cool Video: A Look Ahead to 2021

24 days ago

I joined Ben Lichtenstein, host of the morning futures program at TDAmeritrade.  It is in the futures market that I began my career, and where I gained respect for local traders, who do not have a large institutional backing such as a bank or hedge fund, and are trading their own capital, and taking the risk often from those institutional participants.  There is truly a David vs. Goliath drama being played out with asymmetries of information and depth of capital resources.  I learned the lesson again in my nearly 15 years at Brown Brothers, the last of the partnership banks, were having skin in the game was a source of pride, confidence, and prudence.
I have found less tunnel vision in the futures market and more willingness to look across the capital and

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The Dollar’s Evolving Outlook

24 days ago

The foreign exchange market sees an average daily turnover of something on the magnitude of $6.6 trillion a day.  In a week, the turnover is sufficient to more than cover world trade for a year.  It is the largest of the capital markets.  Trends in the currency market can last for years.
A little more than a year ago, we concluded that the dollar’s third significant rally since the end of Bretton Woods was over and that a cyclical dollar decline was at hand.  Yet the dollar’s price is only known relative to another currency, and there are more than 100, or a basket of currencies.  What exactly does it mean that the dollar’s “third significant rally” was over?

Here is a chart of the dollar that is the best measure of its economic impact. It a broad trade-weighted

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FX Daily, December 21: Happy Holidays

26 days ago

No daily commentary until the New Year, but watch this space for thematic pieces over the next two weeks.
Here is to a safe, healthy, and prosperous 2021.
Thank you for your support.

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FX Daily, July 1: Second Verse Can’t be Worse than the First, Can it?
2020-07-01

The resurgence of the contagion in the US has stopped or reversed an estimated 40% of the re-openings, but the appetite for risk has begun the second half on a firm note, helped by manufacturing PMIs that were above preliminary estimates or better than expected.  Except for Tokyo and Seoul, equities in the Asia Pacific region rose.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose almost 15.5% in Q2. 

FX Daily, July 9:

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FX Daily, December 17: Dollar Thumped

December 17, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.22% to 1.0824

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FX Rates
Overview: The prospects of a UK-EU deal and US stimulus continue to underwrite risk appetites and weigh on the dollar. Equity markets are moving higher. Led by Australia and China, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to new record highs, while Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is at its best level since February. US shares are also trading higher. Bond markets are quiet, with European yields paring yesterday’s gains while the US 10-year benchmark is hovering around 0.92%. The dollar has lurched lower against nearly all the world currencies today. The Norwegian krone is aided by a central bank suggesting it could be among the first major central banks to begin normalizing monetary policy (not until H1 22).

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FX Daily, December 16: Greenback Slides Ahead of FOMC as Optimism Underpins Risk Appetites

December 16, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.26% to 1.0789

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The S&P 500 snapped a four-day downdraft helped by optimism over the progress toward fiscal stimulus and some hope that a new trade deal can still be negotiated between the UK and EU. Europe reported better than expected PMIs. Equities are broadly higher, as are interest rates, while the dollar slumps. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the first time this week, while Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up for the third session and at a new 10-month high. US stocks are extending yesterday’s gains. Benchmark 10-year yields are edging 2-3 bp higher today in Europe. The 10-year

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FX Daily, December 15: The Bulls are Emboldened

December 15, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.12% to 1.0775

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The S&P fell for the fourth consecutive session yesterday, the longest losing streak of the quarter, and this seemed to encourage profit-taking in the Asia Pacific region today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped for the second consecutive session, and even confirmation of the Chinese recovery failed to lift the Shanghai Composite. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is firmer, led by energy and industrials, while US shares are also recovering from yesterday’s retreat. The US 10-year benchmark yield is steady around 0.90%, while peripheral yields in Europe and France are slipping

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Cool Video: CNBC-Asia–Brexit, Sterling, the Euro, and Dollar

December 14, 2020

I had the privilege to join Sri Jegarajah at CNBC Asia at the start of today’s Asia Pacific session.  We had a broad chat about the dollar, Brexit, and the euro. He gave me the opportunity to sketch out my views:
The dollar’s entered a cyclical decline, and the “twin deficit” issue will likely frame the narrative. Many observers do not use that particular phrase now, but their arguments seem to rest on one if not both of the legs.
Sterling gains appear to be more short-covering than the establishment of new longs. Like Sri, many seem to think it is nearly a foregone conclusion that officials will fail to strike a deal. I suggest sterling could fall a 2-3% in a knee-jerk reaction to no deal. Some observers see the risk that the BOE would adopt a negative bank rate

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FX Daily, December 14: Brexit Deal Hopes Lift Sterling

December 14, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.06% to 1.0776

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The fact that the UK and EU negotiators are still talking is seen as a constructive development and has spurred a sharp bounce in sterling. It traded below $1.3150 before the weekend and is pushing above $1.3400 in the European morning. It is part of the larger risk-on move lifting equities and weighing on the dollar more broadly. Equities in the Asia Pacific region were mixed, but Japan, China, India, and Australia rose. The Topix hit new two-year highs. European stocks are snapping a three-day decline by rising nearly 1% so far today. US shares are also trading with a firmer

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FX Daily, December 11: Brexit Fears Weigh on Sterling

December 11, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.21% to 1.0773

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The odds of a UK-EU agreement and new stimulus before year-end in the US have faded and are sapping risk appetites ahead of the weekend. Although most Asia Pacific equity markets gained, China and Australia were notable exceptions, European shares are heavy, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is near three-week lows. It is set to end a five-week rally. US shares are also trading heavily. Bond markets are bid. In fact, yields in several countries, core as well as periphery, are at new record lows. The US benchmark is at a nearly two-week lows below 0.90%. The dollar is mostly higher.

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FX Daily, December 10: Brexit and US Stimulus are Unresolved as Attention Turns to the ECB

December 10, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.13% to 1.0756

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: US threats to break-up Facebook and the stalled stimulus talks spurred profit-taking in US shares yesterday and is dampening enthusiasm today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third time this week, and Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed. US shares are trading with a firmer bias now. Ahead of the ECB meeting, new record lows in yields are being seen in Europe, and Italy’s 5-year yield turned negative for the first time yesterday. Spain auctioned 10-year bonds today with a negative yield for the first time, and some buyers at the three-month bill auction in

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FX Daily, December 9: Hope Burns Eternal

December 9, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.05% to 1.0753

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 9(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The market is hopeful today. The Johnson-von der Leyen dinner is seen as evidence that both sides see one more opportunity, and sterling is among the strongest currencies today. Hopes of a $900 bln+ fiscal stimulus package in the US helped stir animal spirits and lift US stocks to record highs yesterday. Nearly all the Asia Pacific equity markets but China rallied, led by Japan and South Korea, to snap a two-day decline. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is at new highs, with energy and consumer discretionary the strongest sectors, and US stocks build on yesterday’s gain. Benchmark

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FX Daily, December 8: Consolidative Moment as Markets Wait for Fresh Developments

December 8, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.08% to 1.0771

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 8(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Three brinkmanship dramas continue to play out. The UK-EU trade talks have reportedly made little progress and may have even moved backward, according to some reports, over the past two days. The EU and Poland, and Hungary will be butting heads at the leaders’ summit that begins Thursday. The US federal spending authorization is exhausted at the end of the week. A maneuver to extend the deadline by a week appears in the works, but substantial differences remain. With equities falling in Japan, Hong Kong, China, and South Korea, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the second

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FX Daily, December 7: Holy Mackerel Will UK-EU Talks Really Flounder?

December 7, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.21% to 1.0794

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 7(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview:  Optimists see the belabored talk between the UK and EU as providing for a dramatic climax of a deal, while the pessimists warn that the divergence is real.  Sterling opened three-quarters of a cent lower in early turnover and is now off around two cents.  This, coupled with new US sanctions on Chinese officials, is helping spur a larger risk-off moment.  Japanese, Chinese, and Hong Kong markets sold-off in the Asia Pacific region while small markets were firm.  A five-week advance is also at risk in Europe, where the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off around 0.5%, though the FTSE 100,

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FX Daily, December 4: The Employment Report may not Give Greenback much of a Reprieve

December 4, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.081

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 4(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: After wobbling late yesterday on what appears to be old news from Pfizer about a disruption of the vaccine’s supply chain, equity markets have recovered, and risk appetites remain intact. With more than 1% gains in South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s Taiex, the MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark secured its fifth consecutive weekly gain. While European bourses are firmer, the 0.2% gain only halves this week’s loss, which threatens to snap a four-week rally. US shares are firm. The NASDAQ is up 1.4% this week coming into today, poised for its third consecutive weekly rise, while the Russell

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FX Daily, December 03: Euro Rally Stalls while Brexit Concerns Trip Sterling

December 3, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.09% to 1.0824

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 3(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview:  Selling pressure on the dollar and US Treasuries intensified in North America yesterday.  The dollar fell to new lows against the dollar-bloc, euro, and Swiss franc yesterday. The US 10-year yield rose to new three-week highs.  The S&P 500 set a new closing record high.  While Asia Pacific equities are mostly advanced, mild profit-taking is seen in Europe, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is lower for the second consecutive session.  US shares are also trading a little lower.  Australia’s 10-year yield rose above 1% for the first time in more than three months, while European yields

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FX Daily, December 2: Euro Rally Stalls while Brexit Concerns Trip Sterling

December 2, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.39% to 1.0817

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview:  The selling pressure that drove the dollar lower yesterday has abated, and the greenback is paring yesterday’s loss, though the dollar-bloc currencies are showing some resilience.  EC negotiator Barnier briefed ministers that the same three issues that have bedeviled the trade talks with the UK remain unresolved (fisheries, level playing field, and a conflict resolution mechanism).  Sterling has retreated a full cent from the high posted near $1.3440.  Emerging market currencies are mixed, leaving the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index slightly softer after posting its

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FX Daily, December 1: No Follow-Through After Month-End Adjustments

December 1, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.0837

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 1 (see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview:  The near-record rallies seen in the major equity markets in November may have contributed to the month-end drama yesterday.  There has been no follow-through activity.   Stocks bounced back, and the US dollar is heavy, with few exceptions.  In the Asia Pacific region, all the markets are higher, and most rose by more than 1%.  The European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is recouping most of yesterday’s 1% loss, and the S&P 500 is nearly 1% higher too.  Benchmark yields are most 1-2 basis points firmer in Europe and the US, leaving the 10-year Treasury yield around 0.86%. The dollar is lows

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FX Daily, November 27: Dollar Offered Ahead of the Weekend

November 27, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.19% to 1.0814

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Equities are finishing the week on a firm tone, while the US dollar remains heavy. In the Asia Pacific, only Australia and India did not end the week on a firm note. The MSCI Asia Pacific completed its fourth consecutive weekly gain, for around a 13% gain. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is edging higher today, and it too is completing its fourth weekly advance for a cumulative gain of around 14%.  US stocks are trading firmer as well. So far this month, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are up about 11%, while the Russell 2000 is up nearly 20%. Bond yields are a little changed, and the US

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FX Daily, November 25: Risk Appetites Stall Ahead of the US Thanksgiving Holiday

November 25, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro is stable by 0.00% to 1.0833

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The global equity rally appears to be stalling after the US markets rallied strongly yesterday. Chinese, Taiwan, Korean, and Indian indices fell, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index appears to have posted only its second loss this month. European shares are narrowly mixed, leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 little changed. US equities are struggling to sustain upside momentum. The bond market is quiet. US and European yields are a little softer, leaving the 10-year Treasury around 0.87%. Note that Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese benchmark yields are setting new record lows today. Also,

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FX Daily, November 24: Diverging PMIs Fail to Give the Dollar Lasting Support

November 24, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.0808

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The contrast between the eurozone and US preliminary PMI readings caught the short-term market leaning the wrong way, and the dollar snapped back after extending its recent losses. However, today the US dollar is back on its heels and returning to yesterday’s lows against most major currencies. The dollar bloc and Scandis lead the charge, while the Swiss franc and yen, gaining about 0.3%, are the laggards. Emerging market currencies are also mostly stronger, and the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is stabilizing after yesterday’s 0.5% decline, the largest of the month.

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FX Daily, November 23: Markets Look Past Near-Term Challenges

November 23, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0806

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: News that the AstraZeneca vaccine was 70% effective but could be enhanced by changing dosage is lifting spirits and boosting equities. Japan’s markets were closed for a national holiday, but all the equity markets in the region advanced and many by more than 1%. Strong export figures for the first 20 days of November helped lift South Korea’s Kospi to almost a record high. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped higher traded at a new nine-month high. US shares are also trading higher, and the NASDAQ appears to be lagging a bit. Core benchmark 10-year yields in Europe and the US are

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