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Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

Articles by Marc Chandler

FX Daily, April 6: Glimmer of Hope Lifts Markets

3 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.01% to 1.0554

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Reports suggesting that some of the hot spots for the virus contagion appear to be leveling off, and this is helping underpin risk appetites today. The curve seems to be flattening in Italy, Spain, and France. In the US, there are some early signs of leveling off in NY, and now, the number of states with infection rates above 20% is less than 10 from over 40 last week. Nevertheless, caution is still highly warranted as the “weekend effect” could be a result of lighter hospital traffic. Chinese and Indian markets were closed, but other Asia Pacific markets rallied, led by 4%+ gains

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FX Daily, April 03: Oil Firm, Greenback Extends Gains

6 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.17% to 1.0551

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Global equities are finishing the week on a soggy tone despite the 2%+ gains seen in the US yesterday. The extension of shutdowns, rising contagion and fatality rate, and imploding economies weigh on prices.  In Asia, Korea and Indonesia bucked the trend to most minor gains. Europe is giving back yesterday’s gains, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is nearly flat on the week. US shares are paring yesterday’s gains as well, Benchmark bond yields are little changed, though, at 60 bp, the US 10-year yield is about 13 bp lower on the week. European bond yields are mostly higher on the

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April Monthly

6 days ago

In March,  the G10 and many emerging market countries, governments, and central banks unveiled large emergency measures.  The motivation is to blunt the economic impact of the novel coronavirus that has seen more than two billion people around the world have their movement restricted. Large swathes of the world’s economy have shut down.  The nature of the shock means that the first countries to push its companies to re-start, and especially export-oriented countries, such as China, may experience a second-round effect as demand in other countries has not returned.
As April begins, the situation in most countries continues to deteriorate rapidly, and both the duration and magnitude of the economic crisis are difficult to fathom.  As an initial stab, economists are

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FX Daily, April 2: Optimism on Oil Deal Steadies Risk Appetites…for the Moment

7 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.34% to 1.0547

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: After US stocks dropped more than 4% yesterday, investor sentiment has improved, apparently sparked by ideas that the pain will force oil producers to find a way to reduce supply. Oil prices have surged, with the May WTI contract rallying around 7%. Asia Pacific equities were mostly higher, with Japan and Australia the notable exceptions. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is a little firmer, but for the seventh consecutive session, it is chopping around the 300-320 range. US shares are stronger. The S&P 500 gapped lower yesterday, and that gap (~2522.7-2571.2) may offer a reference point

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FX Daily, April 1: Hemorrhaging Resumes

8 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.29% to 1.0566

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 1(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: There is no reprieve for investors. Equities are falling sharply. Nearly all the Asia Pacific markets slumped but Australia. Chinese markets fared better than most, but the Nikkei was off 4.5%, and India was down almost as much in late dealings. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off more than 3% near midday, led by a sell-off in banks that are suspending dividends and share buybacks. It is giving back the last two days of gains. US share is sharply lower. Yesterday, the S&P 500 gave back half of Monday’s gains, and today it is set to give up the other half and more. Bond markets are

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FX Daily, March 31: March Ends like a Lion, No Lamb in Sight

9 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.26% to 1.056

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The coronavirus plague upended the world in March. Equities are finishing the month on a firm note. Strong gains in the US yesterday and an unexpectedly strong Chinese PMI (yes, to be taken with the proverbial grain of salt) helped lift most Asia Pacific and European markets today. Japan and Australia are exceptions to the generalization. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is slightly higher but appears to be waiting for US leadership to break higher. Benchmark 10-year yields are narrowly mixed. Peripheral European yields are a little softer, while the US 10-year hovers around 70 bp. The dollar

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FX Daily, March 30: Monday Blues

10 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.36% to 1.0553

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Risk appetites remain in check as the spread of the coronavirus is leading to more and longer shutdowns. Asia Pacific equities fell with Australia, the notable exception.  Its benchmark rallied a record 7%, encouraged by additional stimulus measures. Led by financials, following new that the ECB is requesting banks hold off dividend payments until October (which frees up an estimated 30 bln euros), real estate, and consumer discretionary sectors, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off by a little more than 0.5% in late morning turnover. US shares are flat to slightly higher. Benchmark

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FX Daily, March 27: Nervousness Ahead of the Weekend

13 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.48% to 1.0573

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Officials appear to have persuaded investors that they have put into place measures that will cushion the economic blow and ensure that the financial system continues to function. After seemingly goading officials into action, investors are choosing not to resist. Moreover, there is a recognition that many programs are scalable. Risk assets dipped initially yesterday and came roaring back. Good follow-through buying was seen in the Asia Pacific region. Australia and Taiwan were exceptions to the general move.  Australia’s benchmark had begun off with around 2% gains before slumping

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FX Daily, March 26: Rumor Bought, Fact Sold

14 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.0623

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Speculation that the US Senate would pass the large stimulus bill worth around 10% of US GDP is thought to have fueled a bounce in equities in recent days. The bill was approved and will now go to the House, where a vote is expected tomorrow. If the rumor was bought, the fact has been sold. The first to crack was the Asia Pacific region. Equities were mixed with the Nikkei shedding 4.5% and the Kospi off 1%. China and Hong Kong markets also slipped. Australia resisted and rose 2.3%. Indonesia, returning from yesterday’s holiday, played catch-up and jumped 10% (which also helped lift

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FX Daily, March 25: Relief, but…

15 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.02% to 1.0589

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Global equities are marching higher. While the Dow Jones Industrials posted its biggest advance since 1933, the US is lagging behind other leading benchmarks. The MSCI Asia Pacific advanced, led by Japan’s Nikkei’s 8% gain. It was third consecutive gain, during which time the Nikkei has rallied 17%. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 3.5% after bouncing 8.4% yesterday. Today looks to be the fourth gain in five sessions and during this period has also recouped around 17%. Of note, the US S&P 500 has posted gains in seven sessions this month and rallied a cumulative 38.5%, but is

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FX Daily, March 24: Relief Bounce On Tuesday, but Turn Around not Secure

16 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.27% to 1.0584

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Bottom-picking, after officials step up efforts and some optimism creeps in, is helping lift spirits today. As one looks at the equity bounces, it is important to remember that among the biggest rallies take place in bear markets. Nearly all the bourses in Asia-Pacific rallied, led by a 7% advance by Japan’s Nikkei and an 8%+ surge in South Korea’s Kospi. Most other markets were up 2%-5%. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up nearly 5% after falling 4.3% yesterday. US stocks are firmer, and early indications suggest a 3%-4% early gains. Bond markets are much quieter, and most benchmark

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Conference Call Replay

16 days ago

Here is the link for the replay of the conference call I hosted earlier today. I shared two ways in which this crisis is different from what we have seen in the last generation. Unlike the Great Financial Crisis, the tech bubble, and the S&L Crisis, the current crisis did not begin in the financial sector, but the real economy. Also, what follows from that is that this crisis is about liquidity, while the GFC was about counter-party risk.
In the call, I covered five main topics:
The economic hit like we have never experienced as significant parts of the economy are shutdown. Flash March PMIs tomorrow will give an inkling and the weekly jobless claims, which surged by a third in last week’s, are forecast to jump five-fold (~1.45 mln) in this Thursday’s report and

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FX Daily, March 23: Greenback Demand Not Satisfied by Swap Lines

17 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.45% to 1.0587

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: In HG Wells’ “War of the Worlds,” the common cold repelled a Martian invasion. Now, a novel coronavirus is disrupting everything and everywhere. Global equities continue to get hammered, though the apparent relative resilience of Japan may have spurred some buying of Japanese equities. Both the Nikkei and Topix posted gains, while equities in the regions tumbled after dropping more than 20% in the past two weeks. India’s main indices were off by more than 12% today. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped lower and is nursing a 4-5% loss on top of the roughly 35% markdown over the past

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FX Daily, March 20: Markets Ending the Week on Better Note

20 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.08% to 1.0531

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Dramatic price action continues but in the other direction.  Stocks and bonds have rallied strongly, and the US dollar is snapping a strong advance with a sharp and broad setback. The immediate trigger is hard to identify. Some accounts linking it to fears that the California shutdown will be repeated throughout the country, deepening the coming downturn. Others suggesting investors are responding to the wide-ranging official efforts to provide liquidity and loans, and other supports. Japanese markets were closed for the spring equinox, and missed a large rally in Asian markets,

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FX Daily, March 19: ECB’s Bazooka Support Bonds but not the Euro

21 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.32% to 1.0531

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: It is not just that the dollar soared while stocks and bonds continued to plunge. The dollar’s strength is, in effect, a powerful short-covering rally. It was used to fund a great part of the global circuit of capital. The circuit of capital is in reverse now, and the funding currency is being bought back. The dollar’s strength is a function of the sell-off of other assets. Meanwhile, officials continue to announce more measures to combat the economic and financial fallout of the coronavirus. The ECB announced a substantial increase in its efforts, and the markets have responded

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FX Daily, March 18: Bonds Join Equities in the Carnage

22 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.27% to 1.0537

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: A new phase of the market turmoil is at hand. Bonds are no longer proving to be the safe haven for investors fleeing stocks. The tremendous fiscal and monetary efforts, with more likely to come, have sparked a dramatic rise in yields. Meanwhile, equities are getting crushed again. Steep losses were seen in many Asia Pacific markets, with Australia off 6% and Hong Kong, South Korea, and India down more than 4%. The Bank of Japan’s ETF purchases are distorting the local equity performance with the Topix posting small gains while the Nikkei fell about 1.7%. European bourses are lower,

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FX Daily, March 17: Even Turn Around Tuesday is Flat

23 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.21% to 1.0565

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: While the markets are not as disorderly as they have been, the tone is fragile, and the animal spirits have been crushed. Australian stocks fell more than 10% last week and dropped another 9.7% yesterday before rebounding by almost 6% today to be one of the few Asia Pacific equity markets to rise. The Nikkei eked out a small gain, but the broader Topix rose 2.6%. The rest of the regional markets extended recent losses. European bourses posted early gains, which were quickly reversed, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is nursing a 2.4% loss in late morning turnover. US shares are flat.

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FX Daily, March 16: Monday Blues: Fed Moves Bigly and Stocks Slump

24 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.01% to 1.0541

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The Federal Reserve and central banks in the Asia Pacific region acted forcefully, but were unable to ease the consternation of investors. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut key rates by 75 bp. The Bank of Japan appears to have doubled its ETF purchase target to JPY12 trillion, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is preparing for new measures that will be announced Thursday. The Fed returned to the zero-bound, resumes long-term asset purchases, and took other measures to boost funding for banks. The price of accessing the dollar-swap lines the Fed keeps with several major central

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FX Daily, March 12: Trump Dump as Market Turns to ECB

28 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.057

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: After the Bank of England and the UK Treasury announced both monetary and fiscal support, the focus turns to the ECB, but the proximity of the US Congressional recess (next week) without strong fiscal measures being in place sucked the oxygen away from other issues. President Trump’s national address in the Asian session failed to reassure investors. Trump’s remarks had to be clarified on at least three counts. The travel ban from Europe did not include trade. It applied to foreigners who traveled to Europe within the past two weeks, and insurance companies agreed to waive copayment

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FX Daily, March 11: US Over-Promises and Under-Delivers, while BOE Steps Up with 50 bp Rate Cut

29 days ago

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.21% to 1.0577

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials sold off after the higher open and briefly traded below yesterday’s lows. Investors seemed disappointed that the Trump Administration was not ready with specific policies after Monday’s tease that had initially helped lift Asia Pacific and European markets earlier on Tuesday. This sparked a sharp decline in Europe into the close. Several individual European markets posted bearish outside down days by trading above yesterday’s highs and then reversing to close at new lows. However, as investors concluded that US fiscal support would be

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FX Daily, March 10: Markets Stabilize after Body Blow

March 10, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.09% to 1.0597

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: It appears after a few days of miscues, US officials struck the right chord, and the global capital markets seemed to stabilize shortly after the US session ended. President Trump’s press conference today is expected to spell out in greater detail relief for households and businesses. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by a 3% surge in Australia. Most markets gained 1%, though South Korea and Taiwan lagged behind. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day 13.5% drop with around a 2% gain through the European morning. US shares are also higher, recouping around 3% of

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FX Daily, March 9: Monday Meltdown

March 9, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.07% to 1.059

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Equities plunged, and yields sank as the coronavirus threatens a global recession. The oil price war signaled by Saudi Arabia and Russia aggravates the desperate situation. Equities markets in the Asia Pacific region slumped 3-7%. The Shanghai Composite was fell 3%. The Nikkei was off by 5%, and Australia was hit among the hardest with a 7.3% loss. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped lower and had not reached a bottom in the morning session, and is off nearly 5.7% as this is written. US indices are hitting their opening limits (5% for the S&P 500). Benchmark yields are collapsing. The

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FX Daily, March 06: Panic Deepens, US Employment Data Means Little

March 6, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.40% to 1.0581

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The sharp sell-off in US equities and yields yesterday is spurring a mini-meltdown globally today. Many of the Asia Pacific markets, including Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and India, saw more than 2% drops, while most others fell more than 1%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped the four-day advance had lifted it about 2.8% coming into today. The story is similar in Europe. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 came into today’s session up about 1.3% for the week, but has given that back plus more and is now off about 1% for the week. Even after yesterday’s plunge, the S&P 500 is up nearly 2.4%

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FX Daily, March 5: The Capital Markets YoYo Continues

March 5, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.04% to 1.0648

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 5(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The 4.2% rally in the S&P 500 yesterday helped lift Asia Pacific markets earlier today, and the five basis point backing up of the US 10-year yield pushed regional yields higher. However, the coattails proved short, and Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day advance and is off about 1.3% in late morning turnover to give back yesterday’s gains. US shares are also trading heavily, and the S&P 500 looks almost 2% lower. European benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 1-3 bp firmer, though German Bund yields are slightly softer. The US 10-year yield is pushing back to nearly

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FX Daily, March 4: Equities Trade Higher, While Yields Continue to Fall

March 4, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.49% to 1.0627

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 4(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The G7 delivered up a nothing burger than was shortly followed by a 50 bp Fed cut. The equity market seemed to enjoy it briefly and extended Monday’s dramatic gains, before falling out of bed. The S&P 500 lost about 2.2%, while the Dow Industrial slumped 3%, but shortly after the markets closed, equities began recovering, and the recovery carried over to the Asia Pacific region and Europe. Although a few markets fell (Hong Kong, Australia, and India), the MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended its recovery into the third session. The same is true of Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600, which is

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March Monthly

March 3, 2020

The new coronavirus that originated in China, apparently first detected in December, emerged on the world’s stage in January and continues to dominate the investment climate. There are two critical questions for investors and businesses whose answers will likely be clearer in the first part of March. First, will Covid-19 be contained for the most part by the end of Q1?
China altered its methodology a couple of times, and many observers questioned the quality of the data in the first place. The unprecedented breadth of travel restrictions in China may have slowed the transmission but failed to contain the virus.  Nor has the next line of defense, (South Korea, Japan, Italy, and Iran) enjoyed better success. Indeed, as February drew to close, new cases were growing

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FX Daily, March 2: Central Banks’ Words of Assurance have Short Life

March 2, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.10% to 1.0632

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: Comments beginning with Powell before the weekend, and BOJ and BOE earlier today promising support have saw equity markets briefly stabilize after last week’s dramatic moves. The G7 will hold a teleconference this week, but speculation of a coordinated rate move does not seem particularly likely. Most of the large stock markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied, led by a 3%+ advance in China. Japan’s indices gained nearly 1%, while Hong Kong and South Korea’s markets advanced too. Australia and Taiwan were exceptions and slipped lower. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 rose about 1.5% in

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FX Daily, February 28: Fallout Accelerates

February 28, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.34% to 1.0606

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The dramatic response by investors to Covid-19 continues unabated and worse. The slide is accelerating. The S&P 500 posted a 4.4% loss yesterday, its worst session since 2011, and the sell-off is continuing. Many markets in Asia Pacific, including Japan, China, Korea, Australia, India, Singapore, and Thailand, fell by more than 3%. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off more than 3% near midday in Europe. Yields are tumbling (~5-9 bp today), which pushes the US 10-year yield below 1.2% and the 2-year yield below 1%. Peripheral European bond yields are rising as they are regarded as

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FX Daily, February 27: The Rot Continues but Somewhat Less Dollar Friendly

February 27, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has risen by 0.20% to 1.0647

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: A new phase of the Covid-19 is at hand. Yesterday was the first time that the number of new cases in the world surpassed the number of new cases China acknowledged.  This confirms what we have known, namely that the battle for containing it in China has been lost. However, it wasn’t until the US officials warned of it that the equities reversed their earlier gains, and the S&P 500 settled at new lows (since early December). President Trump’s public address late yesterday failed to reassure investors, and risk-aversion continues. China and Hong Kong markets were among the

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FX Daily, February 26: Dramatic Investor Adjustment Continues

February 26, 2020

Swiss Franc
The Euro has fallen by 0.16% to 1.0601

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com – Click to enlarge

FX Rates
Overview: The warning by the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention that Americans should prepare for an outbreak of Covid-19 sent the S&P 500 tumbling to an 11-week low and the 10-year Treasury yield to a record low near 1.30%. The volatility of the S&P (VIX) jumped to its highest level since 2018. The sell-off in global equities continues unabated. Thailand (-5%) and Australia (-2.3%) led the carnage in the Far East. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was sold through its 200-day moving average yesterday, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 did so in early morning activity today after gapping

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