SNB & CHF

In the spring of 2015 we showed something unexpected: one of the biggest buyers, and holders, of AAPL stock was none other than the already quite troubled – in the aftermath of its disastrous Swiss Franc peg which ended up costing it tens of billions in losses – largest hedge fund in Switzerland, its central bank, the Swiss National Bank. What is curious is that unlike the Fed, the hedge fund also known as the Swiss National Bank not only proudly admits it purchases stocks, ETFs and...

When looking at the current state of the Chinese economy it is important to note what happened leading up the ongoing predicament. By managing the USD/CNY exchange rate the Chinese factory worker was essentially funding excess consumption in the United States. One of the many perks enjoyed by global reserve issuer. The factory worker obviously did not do this out of his own volition; on the contrary, he was duped into it by swallowing the propaganda spewed out by party apparatchiks in...

1) China relaxed some rules on foreign capital flows 2) Malaysian Prime Minister Najib is tightening his grip on power 3) The Czech National Bank (CNB) has tilted more dovish 4) Ukrainian Economy Minister Abromavicius resigned abruptly, throwing the ruling coalition into turmoil 5) Argentina unexpectedly settled with holdout Italian investors 6) Press reports suggest Brazil’s central bank is considering rate cuts later this year.In the EM equity space, UAE (+6.2%), Indonesia (+4.0%),...

The US created fewer jobs than anticipated and the December gain was revised lower.  However, the other details were favorable--better than expected.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.9%, a new cyclical low, despite the rise in the participation rate (62.7% from 62.6%).   Average hourly earnings were stronger than expected at 2.5%.  The consensus expected a 2.2% year-over-year pace.  The December pace was revised to 2.7% from 2.5%.  The average weekly hours also ticked up to 34.6...

The US nonfarm payroll report typically dominates the first Friday a new month.  In recent years, it has become among the most important economic reports globally.  Not today.   The market's focus has shifted from Chinese stocks and yuan that dominated the first week or so, then oil, and now it is heightened concern about a US recession.  This means there is likely to be an asymmetrical response to the jobs report.  Stronger than expected data is unlikely to deter those who think the US...

Extreme skier Samuel Anthamatten skies in places that would scare most people. The man from Zermatt is among the most successful of his ilk, but he also knows when to apply the brakes. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our YouTube channel:...

Keynes and others may have referred to gold as a barbarous relic, but many investors continue to track it.  In early January, we warned that gold appeared to be breaking out of a short-term bottoming pattern.It had taken out a three-month downtrend line, which we suggested was part of a triangle pattern.  Gold also traced out a double bottom pattern.  The triangle pattern pointed to a move toward $1110 and the double bottom projected to around $1135.   The yellow metal poked through $1157...

Sterling has neared the 50% retracement of the 11.5 cent decline since mid-December.  It is found near $1.4660.  After easing ahead of the BOE announcement, sterling was sold to $1.4530 on the initial headlines that showed the BOE was cutting its growth, inflation, and wage forecasts.    However, the short-sterling futures had already largely discounted the rates being low for longer, and UK debt instruments also sold off, and after the initial flurry, sterling stabilized and recovered...

The US dollar remains under broad pressure after yesterday's sharp decline.  Neither dovish comments by ECB President Draghi, nor the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have managed to reverse the gains of their respective currencies.   Similar, the rise in US yields and firm equities have failed to push the yen lower.  Investors and policymakers are trying to link news developments to the price action, but it seems to be a bit of a stretch.  It is true that NY Fed President Dudley, who had...

Apparently, when Irish eyes are smiling, it’s time to call an election. And that is what Prime Minister Kenny has done.  The election will be held on February 26.  The polls suggest that the governing coalition (Fine Gael and Labour) may struggle to secure a majority.   In some ways, Kenny is making the same bet as Spain's Rajoy.  The economy's strength will provide a lift on election day.  It has not worked out so well for Rajoy though Kenny may have greater success.  However, this is...