SNB & CHF

There was a huge sigh of relief among investors when it became clear that the populist-nationalist wave that ostensibly led to Brexit and Trump’s election was not going to sweep through Europe. The euro gapped higher on April 24, and it has not looked back. We have suggested that with the outcome of the German election, European politics shift from tailwind to headwind. Spain’s most serious constitutional crisis in 40...

– US Mint gold coin sales and VIX at weakest in a decade– Very low gold coin sales and VIX signal volatility coming– Gold rises 1.7% this week after China’s Golden Week; pattern of higher prices after Golden Week– U.S. Mint sales do not provide the full picture of robust global gold demand– Perth Mint gold sales double in September reflecting increased gold demand in both Asia and Europe– Middle East demand likely high...

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose back above 2% in September 2017 for the first time since April. Boosted yet again by energy prices, consumer prices overall still aren’t where the Fed needs them to be (by its own policies, not consumer reality). In fact, despite a 10.2% gain in the energy price index last month, the overall CPI just barely crossed the 2% mark (though for the Fed it really needs to be closer to 3%...

We tend to measure what’s easily measured (and supports the status quo) and ignore what isn’t easily measured (and calls the status quo into question). If we use gross domestic product (GDP) as a broad measure of prosperity, we are 160% better off than we were in 1980 and 35% better off than we were in 2000. Other common metrics such as per capita (per person) income and total household wealth reflect similarly hefty...

  Divine Powers The Dow’s march onward and upward toward 30,000 continues without a pause.  New all-time highs are notched practically every day.  Despite Thursday’s 31-point pullback, the Dow is up over 15.5 percent year-to-date.  What a remarkable time to be alive. President Donald Trump is pumped!  As Commander in Chief, he believes he possesses divine powers.  He can will the stock market higher – and he knows it. ...

Summary: Euro peaked a month ago. The reversal before the weekend marks the end of the leg lower. ECB meeting is next big focus. ECB may focus on gross rather than net purchases. The euro peaked a month ago near $1.2090.  It recorded a low near $1.1670 after the weather-skewed US jobs data seen at the end of last week.  The euro recovered from the weekend and set new session highs late US dealings.  That...

Summary Thailand announced general elections will be held in November 2018. Czech police filed criminal charges against ANO leader Andrej Babis. South Africa President Zuma may face corruption charges that were previously dropped. The US suspended visa services for travelers from Turkey. Kenyan opposition candidate Odinga withdrew from a redo of the annulled presidential election. Saudi Arabia will take a more gradual...

When it comes to flushing valuables down the toilet, the Swiss are hardly “Austrians”, and appear to be equity-opportunity dumpers, whether it is fiat or hard money. Last month we reported that Switzerland was gripped in a mystery, after it was discovered that someone tried to flush $120,000 in €500 bills down the toilet in a bathroom close to a UBS bank vault as well as three nearby restaurants, which in turn clogged...

In the US our economic data for a few months at least will be on shaky ground due to the lingering economic impacts of severe hurricanes. In China, the potential for irregularity is perhaps as great, though it has nothing to do with the weather. In a little over a week, Communist Party officials will gather for their 19th Party Congress. The temptation may exist to deliver a somewhat better economic picture than has...

- Click to enlarge Le travail: toujours une valeur? Et a-t-il encore de la valeur? Le commerce et, d’une manière générale, les échanges transfrontaliers entre nations, ont considérablement amélioré nos conditions de vie. Mais, en fait, que ferait-on sans commerce ? En d’autres termes, s’il fallait tout réaliser soi-même sans faire appel à d’autres corps de métier, à d’autres entreprises et à d’autres nations dont la...