SNB & CHF

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.10% to 1.1786 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates US shares slumped before the weekend amid concern that Trump Administration was prepared to escalate the trade tensions with China. However, cooler heads are prevailing, and there is a recognition that the conflict is still in the posturing...

Summary Reserve Bank of India cut its inflation forecast for the first half of FY2018/19 to 4.7-5.1%. Former South Korean President Park was sentenced to 24 years in prison. Malaysia Prime Minister Razak has called for early elections. Bahrain discovered its biggest oil field since it started producing crude in 1932. Local press reports Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister Simsek tendered his resignation. Brazilian Supreme...

Trade in which mobile capital is the comparative advantage is a system of Neocolonial exploitation of developing-world nations. Were trade wars inevitable? The answer is yes, due to the imbalances and distortions generated by financialization and central bank stimulus. Gordon Long and I peel the trade-war onion in a new video program, Were Trade Wars Inevitable? (27:48) Let’s stipulate right off the bat that trade is...

Interesting Times Arrive “Things sure are getting exciting again, ain’t they?”  The remark was made by a colleague on Tuesday morning, as we stepped off the elevator to grab a cup of coffee. Ancient Chinese curse alert… - Click to enlarge “One moment markets are gorging on financial slop like fat pigs in mud.  The next they’re collectively vomiting on themselves. I’ll tell you one thing.  President Trump’s trade war...

More than 100,000 Italians under 30 years of age left Italy last year, and many of the well-educated among them end up in Switzerland. The cause of the exodus: high unemployment in Italy. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our YouTube channel:...

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss what the current yield curve is telling us? They touch on the changes from an era of fed funds rate targeting and reflect on the 2006-2009 period for interest rates and the reflation trends in the post “Great Financial Crisis”. Jeff continues to deconstruct rates, the negative term premiums and the markets inflation expectations. They conclude looking at central bank failure and why this flat...

Any estimate of the economic costs of protectionist measures, let alone trade wars, is subject to uncertainty given the complexity of global supply chains. A common assumption is that new tariffs on exports will produce small direct effects on GDP growth but more significant indirect effects in the event of escalating trade conflicts, including on domestic investment. Europe looks particularly vulnerable to such...

Jamie Dimon Warns Of Potential ‘Market Panic’ – JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees ‘chance of market panic’ – In annual letter to shareholders Dimon warns of increased inflation and interest rates – Concerned QE unwinding could cause chaos as ‘markets will get more volatile’ – Hard to look at the last 20 years in America “and not think that it has been getting increasingly worse.” – Positive about US economy over next...

The Long Run is Here The dollar is failing. Millions of people can see at least some of the major signs, such as the collapse of interest rates, record high number of people not counted in the workforce, and debt rising from already-unpayable levels at an accelerating rate. US Total Credit Market Debt, 1968 - 2018Total US credit market debt has hit a new high of $68.6 trillion at the end of 2017. - Click to enlarge...

The US dollar appears to be carving a low against the yen. After a significant fall, investor ought to be sensitive to bottoming patterns. The first tell was the key reversal on March 26. In this case, the key reversal was when the dollar made a new low for the move (~JPY104.55) and then rallied to close above the previous session high. The second tell was the divergence with the technical indicators. The divergence is...