SNB & CHF

Marc Chandler speaks of the volatility of the CHF speculative positioning. For us this was window dressing by the SNB that wants to improve the quarterly results. Traders react to the strong market movement caused by the SNB and they close their long CHF positions. If it was really the SNB, we will see on Monday with the SNB Sight Deposits. In the week after the BOJ and FOMC meetings, speculators made several...

When the central banks of three European countries and the European Central Bank (ECB) itself introduced negative interest rates (NIR)  in mid -2014, many considered it be a temporary measure, a new experiment in monetary policy. But when the Bank of Japan did the same in January 2016  and when the ECB  pushed rates further into negative territory in March 2016, the international investment world stood up and took...

Panic Pause The sudden panic about a potentially imminent Italian banking sector collapse back in July has somewhat subsided for now, but sooner or later the issue will inevitably rear its ugly head again. The impressive headquarters of the world’s oldest surviving bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Piazza Salimbeni Photo credit: Stefano Rellandini / Reuters - Click to enlarge Two months after Italian bank stocks...

Italian Prime Minister has set the date for the constitutional referendum as late as practically possibly.  It will be held on December 4.   The issue is the perfect bicameralism that gives as much power to the Senate as the Chamber of Deputies.  Renzi’s argument is that the political reform is necessary to make Italy governable.  Italy has had 63 governments since the end of WWII.  In order to address the economic...

Swiss Franc During the day the EUR/CHF has fallen to a low of 1.0819. We know that the in-official new floor lies at that level. Moreover, the SNB had to polish the Q3 results. With interventions she lifted the EUR/CHF to 1.0893 and the euro continued rising thanks to speculators that jumped on the train.There was no economic data that could have justified the sudden increase. EUR/CHF, September 30. FX Rates True...

Summary: Sweden has one of the weakest of the major currencies this year. Norway has one of the strongest of the major currencies this year. The key driver is divergence of monetary policy and that divergence is likely continue into next year. The euro is trading at its lowest level against the Norwegian krone since August 2015. The euro is near its best levels against the Swedish krona in nearly as long....

SMI The Swiss Market Index is set to finish the week notably lower, underperforming global stocks, as financial sector stocks sell off on questions over Deutsche Bank’s solvency. . - Click to enlarge Economic Data Global equities edged lower this week with European financials among the biggest losers after the share price of Deutsche Bank hit a 30 year low on mounting concerns about the survival of the struggling...

A short clip of Jeffrey performing from Handel's Messiah with Katya Chernaya-Oh on piano. Diversita Opera Arts Company's 2015 Christmas Program in Dallas, TX.

Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF has fallen to 1.0862, the downwards tendency since one day before the SNB monetary assessment meeting has continued. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar has firmer against most major and emerging market currencies. It remains well within its well-worn ranges, which continue to be narrow. A notable exception today is the yen’s weakness. While the majors are mostly off marginally and now...

Summary: There are several economic data points that suggest a healthy gain in jobs in September. College educated unemployment is 2.5% with high school graduate unemployment at 5.5%. The jobs report we expect is consistent with a Fed hike in December. Let’s admit that the monthly non-farm payroll report is among the most difficult for economists to forecast. The are not many reliable inputs as it is the first...