SNB & CHF

Opportunity Cost Rears its Head Last Thursday’s wanton attack on a Syrian air field by the US and its bellicose actions toward North Korea have brought the real cost of candidate Trump’s landslide victory last November to the forefront. It didn’t take long for Donald Trump to drop his non-interventionist mask. The decision was likely driven by Machiavellian considerations with respect to domestic conditions, but that...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named "Producer and Import Price Index" describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

The Swiss National Bank has updated its exchange rate indices. In an SNB Economic Studies paper, Robert Müller describes how. The upshot is that the SNB considers the Swiss Franc slightly less overvalued than before. From the abstract: The key aspects of the revision are: the application of the weighting method used by the IMF, which takes into account so-called third-market effects; continuous updating of the...

Daniel Humm – Source: Facebook_chefdanielhumm 24 Heures. A Swiss chef from Aargau came first in this year’s ranking of the world’s 50 best restaurants. Daniel Humm, co-owner of the restaurant Eleven Madison Park, comes from Strengelbach in Switzerland, and earned his first Michelin star at 24. In 2003, he moved to the United States to become a chef at Campton Place in San Francisco. Three years later, he moved to New...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, April 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Markets are calmer today.  The significant movers yesterday have stabilized.  The dollar has been unable to resurface above JPY110, but after plumbing to new lows near JPY109.35 in Asia, the dollar has recovered back levels since in North America late yesterday.   The decline in the US 10-year yield was...

Bundesrepublik Deutscheland Finanzagentur GmbH (German Finance Agency) was created on September 19, 2000, in order to manage the German government’s short run liquidity needs. GFA took over the task after three separate agencies (Federal Ministry of Finance, Federal Securities Administration, and Deutsche Bundesbank) had previously shared responsibility for it. On September 17, 2014, almost exactly fourteen years...

Summary: FOMC minutes increased likelihood that Fed will begin reducing its balance sheet late this year. There does not seem to be a consensus on other issues. The strength of the ADP report contrasts with softness seen in the ISM and PMI non-manufacturing surveys. The FOMC minutes were clear that officials are contemplating beginning address the balance sheet, which is another sign of confidence in the...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, April 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The Swiss Franc could be in for a particularly volatile with the recent developments in Syria and now North Korea. Both the Swiss Franc and US dollar generally perform very well in times of global economic and political uncertainty as their status as safe haven currencies becomes apparent once again. The...

It is hard not to notice that the chart above has a lot less red in it than it has in some time. That is true of the month to month data as well as the year over year changes. There has been a widely reported gap between so called soft data – surveys and polls – and the hard data – actual economic activity reports. Bulls say the gap is there because the soft data always leads the hard data. Bears say the soft data...

Summary: Japanese investors bought foreign bonds in the last week of March for the first time in nine weeks. Foreigners bought the most Japanese stocks since last April. The pain trade is for a break of JPY110. Japan’s Ministry of Finance reports portfolio flows on a weekly basis with a week lag. The data just reported covers the last week in March, as the Japanese  fiscal year was drawing to a close. Japanese...