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WP – 2024-10-16 – Francesco Audrino, Jessica Gentner and Simon Stalder: Quantifying uncertainty: a new era of measurement through large language models

This paper presents an innovative method for measuring uncertainty via large language models (LLMs), which offer greater precision and contextual sensitivity than the conventional methods used to construct prominent uncertainty indices. By analysing newspaper texts with state-of-the-art LLMs, our approach captures nuances often missed by conventional methods. We develop indices for various types of uncertainty, including geopolitical risk, economic policy, monetary policy, and...

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The Federal Reserve and the Regime Are One and the Same

For decades, the US Federal Reserve has carefully cultivated and promoted the idea that it is somehow separate and independent from the US regime that created it. The ruse has certainly worked. Economists and media pundits frequently refer to this alleged Fed “independence” as if it were a given, and as if there were a wall of separation between the executive branch and the central bank. Others take it even further, and in podcasts and social media one encounters a...

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USD/CHF Price Prediction: Pull back unfolding after higher high

USD/CHF is correcting back after peaking as it extends its uptrend.  The pair will probably resume its bullish bias after the pull back has completed.  USD/CHF is pulling back within its short-term uptrend after peaking at 0.8642 on Monday. The move is only likely to be a temporary correction, however, before the pair resumes its uptrend and extends its sequence of higher highs and higher lows.  USD/CHF 4-hour Chart  USD/CHF will probably...

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Does it matter to the UN who’s in the White House?

Send us a text (https://www.buzzsprout.com/twilio/text_messages/915097/open_sms) The presidential elections in the United States (US) are just a couple of weeks away. What will they mean for international affairs, for Ukraine, for the Middle East, for humanitarian work, for international law and for the United Nations (UN) in Geneva? “When I was in the US, I definitely saw that there is no interest for anything called multilateralism or collaboration globally. Because it’s a...

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