Tag Archives: USD

Overview:  While equities and bonds are firmer, it is the dollar's sell-off that stands out today.  The greenback has retreated broadly.    The euro is trading above the previous week's high for the first time in over a month, and the dollar was pushed back below JPY114.00 in early European turnover. The Chinese yuan is at four-month highs. The Antipodean and Scandi currencies are leading the move against the dollar among the major currencies. The JP Morgan Emerging...

The Antipodeans and the Scandis led last week's move against the dollar, registering more than 1% gains.  The yen was the weakest of the major currencies, falling almost 1.75%, its worst week since March 2020.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index initially declined to a new low for the year before recovering to snap a five-week slide and gain nearly 0.45%. Despite the six basis point gain ahead of the weekend, perhaps helped by a stronger-than-expected...

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a lower bias ahead of the September CPI report due early in the North American session. Long-term yields softened yesterday and slipped further today, leaving the US 10-year yield near 1.56%.  European benchmark yields are 3-4 bp lower. The shorter-end of the US coupon curve, the two-year yield is firmer. Equities are enjoying a slightly better tone, though Japan, Taiwan, and Australia’s markets traded heavily in the Asia...

Overview:  A weak close in US equity trading yesterday and the widening of China's "cultural revolution" for a two-month investigation of the financial sector stopped a three-day advance in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.  China, South Korea, and Taiwan saw more than a 1% decline in their major indices.  All the major indices weakened.  South Korea's Kospi fell to a new marginal low for the year and took the won with it.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is off around...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.07% to 1.0717 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equities are softer and yields higher to start the new week. The dollar is mixed. Oil and industrial metals are higher. There are several developments over the weekend, but the focus seems to be on central bank action, inflation reports by the US and China, and the start of the Q3...

US rates and the dollar hardly responded to the disappointing jobs report.  The 194k rise in the nonfarm payrolls was the least this year, but of course, it is subject to revisions the way the August series was revised by more than 50% to 366k. One critical problem was that hiring by local governments for the start of the school season was less than usual, and with the seasonal adjustment, it turned into a decline. On the other hand, the private sector added 317k,...

Overview: The animal spirits have been reanimated today. Encouraged by the dramatic reversal in oil and gas prices, a deal in the US that pushes off the debt ceiling for a few weeks and talk of a new bond-buying facility in the euro area spurred further risk-taking today, ahead of tomorrow’s US employment report. The sharp upside reversal in US shares yesterday carried over in Asia and Europe today. The Hang Seng, battered lately, jumped over 3%, and the Nikkei...

Overview: Investors worry that surging energy prices will sap economic activity and boost prices.  It is sparking a sharp drop in equities and bonds while lifting the dollar.  The Nikkei fell for the eighth consecutive session, and today's 1% drop brings the cumulative decline to 9%.  South Korea's Kospi also fell by more than 1%.  Some of the smaller markets in the region, like Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, rose by more than 1%.  They are an anomaly. ...

The dollar's strong upside momentum, which accelerated after the FOMC meeting, stalled in recent days.  If interest rate considerations were the key driver, the Fed funds futures strip appears to have made the necessary adjustment.  By our calculations, the September contract has a 25 bp hike fully discounted, and about a fifth of a second hike priced into the December contract.  Meanwhile, the weekly initial jobless claims have risen for three weeks through...

Overview: Energy prices pulled back late yesterday, but it offered little reprieve to the bond market where the 10-year benchmark yields in the US, UK, Sweden, and Switzerland reached new three-month highs.  November WTI traded to almost $76.70 before reversing lower and leaving a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick in its wake.  The US S&P 500 and NASDAQ gapped lower and did not recover, setting the stage for today’s drop in Asia.  All the major...