Tag Archives: USD

Overview: The US dollar begins the new month better offered. It is softer against all the major currencies. Short yen positions continue to get unwound, which is leading the move, followed  by the Antipodeans, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike rates tomorrow. Most emerging market currencies are firmer too, except for a few Asian currencies, the Russian rouble, and, of course, the Turkish lira. Asian and European equities are higher. Japan and...

Next week, there are three big events:  the US jobs report, the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, and the Bank of England's meeting. That said, the final PMI readings may be more helpful this time than we often see because of how quickly it appears activity has stalled. After we review the likely highlights and share a few other observations, we will look at the technical condition of the major dollar pairs.  On August 3 in Sydney, the Reserve Bank of Australia...

Overview: The month-end and slew of data is making for a volatile foreign exchange session, while the rash of earnings has generally been seen as favorable though weakness was seen among the semiconductor chip fabricators. China, Hong Kong, and Japanese equities fell but the other large markets in the region rose. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up around 0.8%. It is the eighth advance in the past 10 sessions. US futures are higher and the S&P 500’s advance of nearly 7.6%...

Overview: The Federal Reserve delivered its second consecutive 75 bp rate hike, and Chair Powell left the door open for another large hike at the next meeting in September. Yet, the market took away a dovish message and the dollar suffered, rates slipped, and equities rallied. Central banks with currencies pegged to the dollar had to hike too. This includes Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and UAE, which matched the move in full. Kuwait and Qatar hiked by 25 bp and...

Overview: Better US news from the likes of Google, Microsoft, and Texas Instruments has helped lift sentiment today and is encouraging a more risk-on mood ahead of the FOMC meeting. News that US President Biden and China’s Xi will talk tomorrow for the second time this year may be notable but does not appear to be impactful in the capital markets. China’s CSI 300 and the Hang Seng were exceptions to the general advance of equities in the Asia Pacific region today....

Overview: With the exception of Japan, Taiwan, and India, the large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region traded higher today. The Hang Seng led the move (1.65%) amid reports that Alibaba will seek its primary listing there. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is edging higher today. If it can hold on to the gains, it will be the fourth consecutive rise, the longest advance since May. US futures are slightly under water. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly lower, with the US off...

Overview: Aside from political economic risks, three other challenges are emerging. First, the new sub-variant of Covid is spreading rapidly. BA5 reportedly is accounting for around 80% of the new cases. It is better able to evade antibodies from vaccines and earlier infections. Hospitalization rates are also climbing. Dining, retail, and travel may be impacted. Second, the World Health Organization declared monkeypox a global emergency. The US may make a similar...

The dollar fell against all the major currencies last week but pared the losses ahead of the weekend. The sub-50 EMU flash composite PMI unwound the half-cent gain the euro recorded after the ECB delivered a 50 bp hike to kick off its first tightening since 2011.  Disappointing US economic data (housing, leading economic indicators, the Philadelphia Fed survey, and the flash composite PMI drop into contraction territory weighed on US 10-year yields. This helped...

The outcome of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting on July 27 is the most important event in the last week of July. After a brief flirtation with a 100 bp hike after the June CPI accelerated, the market has settled back to a 75 bp move. The Fed funds futures are pricing about a 10% chance of a 100 bp hike. The market anticipates that after the second 75 bp hike, the Fed will most likely return to a 50 bp hike in September.  Fed Governor Wall, a...

Overview:  The euro is over a cent lower from yesterday’s peak, pressured by the drop in the flash PMI composite below 50 for the first time since early last year. More generally, the flash PMIs have shown the global economic momentum is waning, and the bond markets have responded accordingly. The US 10-year yield is flirting with 2.80%, its lowest level in more than two weeks. European yields are 15-20 bp lower and the spread between Italian and German bonds has...