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Tag Archives: USD

FX Daily, January 17: Risk Assets Underperform as Investors Await Fresh Developments

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.32% at 1.1319 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The capital markets remain relatively subdued as fresh trading incentives are awaited, including US corporate earnings. Some of the enthusiasm for risk-assets has diminished. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has stalled after...

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FX Daily, January 15: New Phase Begins with UK Vote

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.17% at 1.1272 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Several of the equity benchmarks are flirting with six-week highs, including MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the Emerging Markets Index. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trying to extend its advancing streak for a third week, something not...

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FX Weekly Preview: Europe Moves to the Center Ring

In recent weeks, the macro story focused on the shifting outlook for Fed policy and the Sino-American trade relationship. There is unlikely to be further progress on either issue in the week ahead. The Fed won’t raise interest rates until toward the middle of the year at the earliest. The government shutdown will limit new readings on the US economy. US and Chinese officials just met.  Mid-level Chinese officials can...

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FX Daily, January 09: Equities Continue Recovery, Greenback Remains Heavy

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% at 1.1233 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 9(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Global equities have extended the New Year rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced for the fifth consecutive session and the 10th in the past 11. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is rising for the second consecutive session,...

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Keep Fitch’s Warning in Perspective

- Click to enlarge The global head of Fitch’s sovereign ratings warned that the continued US government shutdown could jeopardize the AAA-status the rating agency grants America. It spurred little market reaction (and for good reason). First, the rating cut is not imminent, though some of the headlines suggest otherwise. Fitch’s McCormack though was clear: ” If the shutdown continues to March 1 and the debt ceiling...

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FX Daily, January 8: Dollar Steadies, but Weakly for Turn-Around Tuesday

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% at 1.1222 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 8(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets remain calm after the surge in volatility seen over the last couple of weeks. Asian equities were mixed, with the Japanese, Australia and Indian shares gaining, but other large regional markets, like China,...

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Apple, China, Yen, and US Jobs: Welcome to 2019

The New Year is off to an auspicious start. The Japanese yen, the third most actively traded currency behind the dollar and euro, got caught in a vortex of a retail short squeeze, algos, and who knows what else. The US dollar plunged from around JPY109 to a slightly below JPY105 in a few minutes a little more than an hour after US markets closed yesterday.   Japanese markets were still closed for the holiday, which may...

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A Word on Q3 COFER-It Might not be What You Think

The IMF offers the most authoritative report on central bank reserves on a quarterly basis with a quarter lag. The report, the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), covering Q318 has been released. It may be have been overlooked during the holidays, but if and when the pundits see it, the leading takeaway is that the dollar’s share of global reserves fell below 62% for the first time five...

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Technical Musings about the Euro and Dollar Anchored by Macro

The $1.1475-$1.1550 is an important area for the euro. Many bulls see a rounded bottom being carved and a break above it would be embraced as a confirmation. The lower-end corresponds to the 100-day moving average. Such a bottom pattern, if confirmed, would project toward $1.1800 the high in H2 18. On the downside, the low from H2 18 was near $1.1200. This is just above a key (61.8%) retracement of the January...

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Forex Forensics: The Case of the Yen

Over the past five sessions, the yen is the strongest of the major currencies, appreciating about 1.7% against the US dollar, eclipsing the Swedish krona, which rallied strongly today after the Riksbank’s surprise rate hike. Given the sell-off in equities and the decline in markets, the yen’s strength is not surprising. What was surprising though was the dollar’s resilience against the yen earlier this month as equities...

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