Tag Archives: U.S. Dollar Index

It has now been 318 trading days since the S&P 500 suffered a 5% drawdown – the 4th-longest streak since 1928… So everything is awesome… [embedded content] BUT…US ‘hard’ economic data has not been this weak (and seen the biggest drop) since Feb 2009… US Data Surprise Index, 2006 - 2017 - Click to enlarge Q3 Was a Roller-Coaster… Q3 was the 8th straight quarterly gain in a row for The Dow – the longest streak...

USD/CHF EUR/CHF EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge EUR/USD [embedded content] USD/JPY [embedded content] GBP/USD [embedded content] NZD/USD [embedded content] Related posts: FX Weekly Review, August 28 – September 02: The end of big euro rise? FX Weekly Review, June 26 – July 01:...

The incoming economic data hasn’t changed its tone all that much in the last several years. The US economy is growing but more slowly than it once did and we hope it does again. It is frustrating for economic bulls and bears, never fully satisfying either. Probably more important is the frustration of the average American, a dissatisfaction with the status quo that permeates the national debate. The housing bubble...

This update will be a bit shorter than usual. I’m in Miami awaiting Hurricane Irma. As of now, it looks like the eye of the storm will make landfall near Key West and continue west of us with the Naples/Ft. Myers area at risk. Or at least that’s the way it looks right now. I’ve done a lot of these storms though – I lost a house in Andrew in ’92 – and you never know what these things will do.  We are secure in a house...

EUR/CHF The euro rose close to CHF 1.15 with the ECB meeting this week. Finally traders realized that the ECB committed not to hike rates for a very long time. The ECB will review and take a first decision on the bond purchasing program this autumn. However, this program will come to an end only when the inflation target of 2% becomes in reach. Strangely the EUR/CHF reacted with losses only on Friday. Where will Euro...

EUR/CHF Let us remember why the euro has risen from 1.08 to 1.14 between June and August: Hopes that the French president Macron will help the French economy, similarly to the Trump reflation trade. Hopes that the ECB will finish their bond buying program earlier combined with quite good economic data. We are of the opinion that both points may be illusionary. The euro should not rise further. Politicians cannot...

USD/CHF The dollar had some gains versus the franc during the last month, but it lost all during the last days. EUR/CHF The euro is still around 1.14, this is up 2.5% against one month ago. The rising momentum for EUR/CHF, however, seems to be fading. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3...

Overview The euro has lost some momentum versus the franc, the main reason is as usual monetary policy: Draghi does not want to talk about an early end of his bond buying programming at Jackson Hole. This had been confirmed by economic data: only 1.2% core inflation compared to a long-term inflation target of 2%. Consequently the Swissie appreciated during the week. Eurozone Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, Jul...

 There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are other changes to the portfolio though so please read on. As I write this the stock market is in the process of taking a dive (well if 1.4% is a “dive”) and one can’t help but wonder if the long awaited and anticipated correction is finally at hand. Which means,...

US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday’s sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained...