Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.21% at 1.1366 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: As the North American session is about to begin, the markets await developments in the UK House of Commons where a vote is expected today on Prime Minister May’s proposal to hold votes on around March 12 on the Withdrawal Bill and no...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead
After a dismal end of 2018, investors are faring better through the first two- thirds of the Q1 19. Equity markets have recouped a good part of the late-2018 decline. Bond yields, however, have not returned to where they previously were. The tightening of financial conditions, which was both cause and effect of heightened anxiety among investors, and spooked some central bank have eased considerably. The volatility of...
Read More »Cool Video: Fox Business–Stocks and the US Consumer
Varney and Company on Fox Business TV - Click to enlarge I joined Varney and Company on Fox Business TV earlier today. Varney had liked by bullish call on stocks from the end of last year, but seemed dismayed that I have turned cautious. I suggested that the S&P are approaching a key area a little above 2800 that has capped in Q4 18. In addition to these chart points, I am concerned that the S&P 500 has rallied...
Read More »FX Daily, February 18: Dollar Drifts Lower
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.06% at 1.1349 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: In quiet turnover, the US dollar slipped lower against most of the major currencies to start the new week. The news stream is light and the US markets are closed today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up five of the past six...
Read More »Cool Video: Noise or Signal?
From the second half of last week through the first half of this week, the S&P 500 rallied. It surpassed our target of 2700 and made it to almost 2740, retracing more nearly 2/3 of the decline from the record high set last September. It stalled ahead of the 200-day moving average, which had previously offered support declines. The S&P 500 pulled back in the second half of the week. The fact the three-day...
Read More »FX Daily, February 08: Dollar Index Seven-Day Advance is the Longest in Two Years
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.22% at 1.1343 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: As North American traders return to their posts to put the finishing touches on the week’s activity, the Dollar Index is extending its advance for a seventh consecutive session. If sustained, it will be the longest advance since...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead is Mostly About Digestion
The information set investors have is unlikely to substantively change in the coming days. The important macro points are known. The first part of February may be about digesting and making sense of that information rather than an incremental increase. Investors had been concerned about what has become known as “quantitative tightening” or “QT”. It is the opposite of QE. Collectively the central banks’ balance...
Read More »FX Daily, February 01: Did the Fed Steal the Jobs Data Thunder?
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.24% at 1.1407 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Weak manufacturing PMI readings are curbing risk appetites ahead of the US jobs report. Growth concerns are top and center after dovish Fed and the Bundesbank’s Weidmann warning that Germany may undershoot 1.5% growth this year, though...
Read More »FX Daily, January 29: Fragile Tone Persists
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.19% at 1.1353 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The positive impulse in the capital markets seen last week has faded. The gap higher opening ahead of the weekend by the S&P 500 was follow by a gap lower opening yesterday. The US threatened crackdown on Huawei disrupted...
Read More »FX Daily, January 28: Getting Ducks Lined Up for Later in the Week
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.05% at 1.1331 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets are consolidating ahead of this week’s big events, which include the FOMC meeting, US jobs, an important Brexit vote in the UK parliament and the first look at Q4 EMU and US GDP. The US dollar is narrowly...
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