US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday’s sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained...
Read More »Property Market In Dublin Is Inflated and May Burst Again
Commercial Property Market Is Inflated and May Burst Again by David McWilliams Dublin property investors had better hope that Brexit happens soon. They should also hope that it’s not just a ‘hard’ Brexit, but a granite Brexit — a Brexit that’s as hard as possible. They should be betting on the buffoonery of Boris Johnson, down on both knees praying for a massive barney between Davis and Barnier. A granite Brexit might prompt the migration of hundreds of corporate refugees from isolated...
Read More »Fighting inflation with FX, a real traders market
(GLOBALINTELHUB.COM) Dover, DE — 7/18/2017 — Hidden in plain site, as the Trump administration finally released something of substance regarding the so called promised “Trade Negotiation” we see FX take center stage in the global drama unfolding. As noted on a Zero Hedge article: The much anticipated document (press release and link to full document) released by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the...
Read More »Fighting inflation with FX, a real traders market
(GLOBALINTELHUB.COM) Dover, DE — 7/18/2017 — Hidden in plain site, as the Trump administration finally released something of substance regarding the so called promised “Trade Negotiation” we see FX take center stage in the global drama unfolding. As noted on a Zero Hedge article: The much anticipated document (press release and link to full document) released by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the Trump administration aimed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit by...
Read More »Global Asset Allocation Update: Not Yet
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month. Growth and inflation expectations rose somewhat since last month’s update. The change is minor though and within the range of what we’ve seen in recent months. The most significant change from last month is the continued...
Read More »Silver Analysts Forecast $20 In Bloomberg Silver Price Survey
Silver Analysts Forecast $20 In Bloomberg Silver Price Survey - Bloomberg silver price survey - Large majority bullish on silver- Silver median "12 month-forecast" of $20- Precious metal analysts see silver "24 percent rally from current levels"- Investors are pouring money into silver ETFs- Speculative funds bearish even as ETF assets rise to record- Spec funds being bearish is bullish as frequently signals bottom- Important to focus not just on silver price but on silver...
Read More »Residential Property: The End of an Era
The almost 15-year era of rising prices for residential properties appears to be at an end. In the coming quarters, an overall sideways trend can be expected. Single-family dwellings ought to outpace condominiums in terms of price growth. For nearly one and a half decades, condominium prices have...
Read More »Global Asset Allocation Update
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are, however, changes within the asset classes. We are reducing the equity allocation and raising the allocation to REITs. Based on the bond markets there has been little change in the growth and inflation outlook since the last asset allocation update. Based on...
Read More »Where There’s Smoke…
Central banks around the world have colluded, if not conspired, to elevate and prop up financial asset prices. Here we’ll present the data and evidence that they’ve not only done so, but gone too far. When we discuss elevated financial asset prices we really are talking about everything; we’re talking not just about the sky-high prices of stocks and bonds, but also of the trillions of dollars’ worth of derivatives that...
Read More »Bi-Weekly Economic Review
It wasn’t a very good two weeks for economic data with the majority of reports disappointing. Most notable I think is that the so called “soft data” is starting to reflect reality rather than some fantasy land where President Trump enacts his entire agenda in the first 100 days of being in office. Politics is about the art of the possible and that is proving a short list for now. Republicans can’t agree among...
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