Tag Archives: Perspectives

Interesting times for China, some scepticism about the recent market rebound, and prospects for private equity investing are some of the themes in the April edition of 'Perspectives', out now in English In the April issue of Perspectives, Christophe Donay, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet, argues that the Chinese fiscal and monetary authorities still have plentiful resources to ensure that China achieves a growth rate of 6.5-7.0% this year and next. But China will sooner or later...

Published: 17th March 2016 Download issue: Financial markets search for a second wind Equity markets in developed economies rebounded in February, after spending December and January in an attitude of crisis. We think that this is just a tactical rebound, rather than a return to the bull market that prevailed on equity markets from 2009 to 2014. The fundamentals that limit the upside for equities have not changed; meanwhile, the limits of central bank policy are becoming increasingly...

Published: 12th February 2016 Download issue: A turbulent start to a volatile year Global markets had a very difficult start to 2016, with equity markets experiencing one of the largest January falls in history, currency markets also seeing major disruption, and a sharp widening of spreads on high yield corporate bonds. By the end of the month, though, there were signs that a rebound was underway. Although the magnitude of the sell-off was clearly a concern, these developments are not out...

Published: 16th December 2015 Download issue: A case of lacklustre Goldilocks The coming year can just about be described as a ‘Goldilocks’ environment (not too hot, not too cold), but not a very appealing one. It is likely to be characterised by weak inflation, an absence of momentum in economic growth, concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy, ongoing weakness in emerging markets, and periods of elevated volatility in financial markets. This scenario for 2016, as outlined in...

Published: 11th November 2015 Download issue: Since 2009, major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and others have largely determined the trends in the major asset classes of both emerging and developed countries: equities, sovereign and corporate bonds, and currencies. Investors found their guiding light in the central banks. Markets are once again likely to find themselves under their influence in 2016, but without as...

Published: 15th October 2015 Download issue: The Vix, a widely used measure of equity-market volatility, was in a systemic risk regime for 15 days this year, compared with just two days in 2014 and none at all in 2013, as shown by the chart below. This year’s experience of volatility is still not extensive in a historical comparison, but it still represents a marked change from very subdued conditions in the previous two years. What explains the change? Higher market volatility at present...