Tag Archives: newslettersent

There are actually two parts to examining the orthodox treatment of the output gap. The first is the review, looking backward to trace how we got to this state. The second is looking forward trying to figure what it means to be here. One final rearward assessment is required so as to frame how we view what comes next. As I suggested earlier this week, the so-called output gap started at the trough of the Great...

  Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index was mostly unchanged against the U.S. Dollar Index in the last week. One word about Marc Chandler’s argumentation below: Three types of investors are long the dollar: FX investors/speculators are long the dollar because of the difference in monetary policy (e.g. higher US rates). Cash investors, for example rich people from China and other Emerging Markets, currently...

The U.S. will never go back on a gold standard. The notion that a U.S. Dollar backed by gold would solve our financial problems is pure folly. Why? Because, if the U.S. Empire didn’t abandon the gold standard in 1971, it would have collapsed decades ago. Unfortunately, some of the top experts in the precious metals community continue to suggest that revaluing gold much higher, to say…. $15,000-$50,000 an ounce, would...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is finishing the week on a steady to firmer note against the major currencies but the Japanese yen. The softer yields and weaker equity markets often are associated with a stronger yen. For the week as a whole, the dollar is mostly lower, though net-net it has held its own against sterling,...

Speaking to Tribune de Genève, Serge Dal Busco, Geneva’s minister of finance, voiced his concerns about last Sunday’s rejection of Switzerland’s planned company tax reform. At the same time he remains optimistic about the chances of a new federal corporate tax reform project. His biggest concern is that Bern might backtrack on its promise to help the cantons replace the lost tax revenue created by lowering standard tax...

The Consumer Price Index for January 2017 rose 2.5%, pulled upward by its energy component which thanks to oil prices now being comparing to the absolutely lows last year saw that part of the index rise 11.1% year-over-year. Given that oil prices bottomed out on February 11, 2016, this is the last month where oil prices and thus energy inflation will be at its most extreme (except, of course, should WTI actually rise...

In 2014, the average gross annual salary for a full-time male worker in Switzerland was CHF 81,000, CHF 10,000 or 12.5% higher than that of an average woman. But what does this high level difference mean? Inspired by the Swedish statistician Hans Rosling, who passed away recently, I decided to dig deeper to see what was behind this top line pay difference. Hans Rosling had a knack for using statistics to expose bias and...

Fragmentation, discord, discontent, class war: this is the inevitable result of a shrinking pie. The politics of the past 70 years was all about horsetrading who got what share of the growing pie: the “pie” being cheap energy, government revenues and consumption, sales and profits. Horsetrading over a growing pie is basically fun. There’s always a little increase left for the losers, so there is a reason for everyone to...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF At the time of  writing the pound is trading much closer to it’s annual low against the Swiss Franc than it’s annual high, and for reason for this can simply be put down to last years Brexit vote. We are now just weeks from the formal initiation of the Brexit process and interestingly the Pound is...

Swiss Labour Force Survey 4th quarter 2016: labour supply 1.5% increase in the number of employed persons. The unemployment rate based on the ILO definition falls to 4.3% Neuchâtel, 16.02.2017 (FSO) – The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 1.5% between the 4th quarter 2015 and the 4th quarter 2016. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO)...