Tag Archives: newsletter

In September 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer increases by 1.6 points. It thus partially reverses its previous month’s decline. With a new reading of 105.8, the Barometer still points to a level clearly above its long-term average. This indicates that the outlook remains favourable – the Swiss economy should continue to grow at above average rates in the near future. In September 2017, the KOF Economic...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report The price of gold dropped $24, and that of silver 60 cents this week. This is a far cry from Sep 8, when the price of silver hit $18.21. Since then, it’s been almost all downhill. What happened? Since the beginning of last month, the price of silver had been rising and at the basis...

The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. The UBS consumption indicator increased to 1.53 points in August thanks to robust new car registrations and encouraging numbers of hotel stays by Swiss residents, indicating consumption growth slightly above the...

Q2/2017 Change vs. Q2/2016 Changein % Current Account +18.7 bn. +19.4 bn. -3.7% of which Goods Trade net +19.6 bn. +19.2 bn. +2.0% of which Services Trade net +4.1 bn. +4.7 bn. -14.6% of which Investment Income net +7.4 bn. +9.6 bn. -29.7% Financial Account +12.5 bn. +6.0 bn. +52% of which Direct Investments net -63.0 bn. +6.4 bn. -89.8% of which Portfolio Investments net +26.5 bn. -0.5 bn. +98.1% of...

The incoming economic data hasn’t changed its tone all that much in the last several years. The US economy is growing but more slowly than it once did and we hope it does again. It is frustrating for economic bulls and bears, never fully satisfying either. Probably more important is the frustration of the average American, a dissatisfaction with the status quo that permeates the national debate. The housing bubble...

Last week’s developments will continue to shape the investment climate in the week ahead, and at the same time, new inflation readings from the US, EMU, and Japan will add incrementally to investors’ information set. We do not expect the results of the German election to have much market impact. The most likely result is a strong signal of continuity with a return of the Grand Coalition. At the same time, French...

Stock Markets EM FX was mostly firmer on Friday, but capped off a week of broad-based losses. US rates gave back some of post-FOMC rise, and that weighed on the dollar. Not much in the way of US data until Friday’s core PCE reading and Chicago PMI. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, September 20 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Singapore Singapore reports August CPI Monday, which is expected to remain...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolios this month. The post Fed meeting market reaction was a bit surprising in its intensity. The actions of the Fed were, to my mind anyway, pretty much as expected but apparently the algorithms that move markets today were singing from a...

The price of shares in The Swiss National Bank is up 11 days in a row, soaring 150% in the last two months. SNB Stock Price, 2010 - 2017(see more posts on Swiss National Bank Stock, ) - Click to enlarge That sounds like a ‘tulip’ bubble-like ‘fraud’… Bitcoin and SNB, 2013 - 2017(see more posts on Bitcoin, Swiss National Bank Stock, ) - Click to enlarge The SNB is up over 120% in Q3 so far – more than double...

Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed Likely To Create Next Recession – Is the Fed about to kill the business cycle? – 16 out of 19 rate-hike cycles in past 100 years ended in recession – Total global debt at all time high – see chart – Global debt is 327% of world GDP – ticking timebomb… – Gold has beaten the market (S&P 500) so far this century – Safe haven demand to increase on debt and equity risk – Gold looks...