United States The US grew 156k jobs in August, missing the median estimate by about 16k. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, September 7(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, ). Unemployment Rate The July series was revised up by 16k. The unemployment and participate rate ticked up 0.1% to 5.0%… U.S. Unemployment Rate, September 2016(see more posts on U.S. unemployment rate, ). Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge...
Read More »FX Daily, October 05: Euro Remains Firm Despite Dubious Tapering Story
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 05 2016. Federal Reserve While the markets can be an incredibly efficient discounting mechanism, it sometimes is also an echo chamber. What began off as a Bloomberg report indicated that there was an agreement at the ECB that when it decided to end its asset purchases, it would gradually taper back rather than come to a fast stop, by the end of the day, it had...
Read More »FX Daily, October 04: Sterling’s Slide Continues, EUR/CHF Soars Again
Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF has soared again. Later during the day, it has even achieved 1.0970. EUR-CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 04 2016. - Click to enlarge Federal Reserve UK Prime Minister May’s comments at the Tory Party Conference over the weekend played up the risk of what has been dubbed a hard Brexit and triggered a slide in sterling saw it fall to new 30-year+ low against the dollar just below $1.2760. A...
Read More »The Yen in Three Charts
Summary: The dollar is taking out a several month downtrend against the yen. The correlation between the yen and the S&P 500 has broken down. The US 2-year premium over Japan has steadily risen. One of the big stories in the foreign exchange market this year has been the strength of the Japanese yen. It is up 17.3% so far this year, despite negative interest rates through 10-years and among the worst...
Read More »FX Daily, October 04: Sterling’s Slide Continues, but Greenback is Broadly Bid
Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF has soared again. Later during the day, it has even achieved 1.0970. EUR-CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 04 2016. - Click to enlarge Federal Reserve UK Prime Minister May’s comments at the Tory Party Conference over the weekend played up the risk of what has been dubbed a hard Brexit and triggered a slide in sterling saw it fall to new 30-year+ low against the dollar just below $1.2760. A...
Read More »FX Daily, October 03: May’s Confirmation Sends Sterling Lower
Swiss Franc After the sudden jump with SNB’s Q3 window dressing, the EUR/CHF is trending lower again. . - Click to enlarge FX Rates Sterling has a bad case of the Monday blues. Even the moon looks distraught. Prime Minister May has confirmed earlier suggestions that she will trigger Article 50 to formally begin its divorce proceedings from the EU at the end of Q1 17. Several officials have already hinted this time...
Read More »FX Daily, September 30: SNB Intervenes to Polish Q3 Results
Swiss Franc During the day the EUR/CHF has fallen to a low of 1.0819. We know that the in-official new floor lies at that level. Moreover, the SNB had to polish the Q3 results. With interventions she lifted the EUR/CHF to 1.0893 and the euro continued rising thanks to speculators that jumped on the train.There was no economic data that could have justified the sudden increase. EUR/CHF, September 30. FX Rates True...
Read More »FX Daily, September 29: Dollar Quietly Bid, while Market is Skeptical of OPEC Deal
Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF has fallen to 1.0862, the downwards tendency since one day before the SNB monetary assessment meeting has continued. Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar has firmer against most major and emerging market currencies. It remains well within its well-worn ranges, which continue to be narrow. A notable exception today is the yen’s weakness. While the majors are mostly off marginally and now...
Read More »FX Daily, September 28: Dollar Mostly Firmer, but Going Nowhere Quickly
Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today, but it remains narrowly mixed on the week. It is within well-worn ranges. Of the several themes that investors are focused on, there have not significant fresh developments. In terms of monetary policy, both Draghi and Yellen speak today. The former is behind closed doors with a Germany parliamentary committee. While Draghi’s...
Read More »FX Daily, August 19: Dollar Recovers into the Weekend
Swiss Franc: In the real effective exchange rate calculation, the PPI plays an important role. The Swiss producer price index fell by 0.8% YoY, while the German one is down 2.0%. Thismeans that in 2016 the CHF overvaluation is rising, when compared to the major Swiss trading partner Germany. The values for 2015 were -6% for the Swiss and -2.5% for Germany, the CHF overvaluation was reduced. Click to enlarge. Source...
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