Tag Archives: JPY

This year was supposed to be about the easing of the pandemic and the normalization of policy. Instead, Russia's invasion of Ukraine threw a wrench in the macroeconomic forecasts as St. Peter’s victories broke the brackets of the NCAA basketball championship pools. The war has pushed up the price of energy, metals, and foodstuffs, which seemed to be advancing prior to the conflict.  High-frequency economic data are important because of the insight generated about...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.18% to 1.1065 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Even though the NASDAQ closed lower yesterday and the reception of the 10-year Treasury auction did not excite, market participants are growing more confident. Led by China, the major markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied. The Shanghai Composite’s 2.35% gain not only snaps a...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.08% to 1.0771 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 8(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Three brinkmanship dramas continue to play out. The UK-EU trade talks have reportedly made little progress and may have even moved backward, according to some reports, over the past two days. The EU and Poland, and Hungary will be butting heads at the leaders’ summit that begins...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.21% to 1.0794 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 7(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview:  Optimists see the belabored talk between the UK and EU as providing for a dramatic climax of a deal, while the pessimists warn that the divergence is real.  Sterling opened three-quarters of a cent lower in early turnover and is now off around two cents.  This, coupled with new US...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.081 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 4(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: After wobbling late yesterday on what appears to be old news from Pfizer about a disruption of the vaccine’s supply chain, equity markets have recovered, and risk appetites remain intact. With more than 1% gains in South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s Taiex, the MSCI Asia Pacific...

Why are there still outstanding dollar swap balances? It is the middle of September, for cryin’ out loud, and the Federal Reserve reports $52.3 billion remains on its books as of yesterday. Six months after Jay Powell conducted what he called a “flood”, with every financial media outlet reporting as fact this stream of digital dollars into every corner of the world, how can there be anything greater than zero in overseas liquidity swaps? Six months is an eternity....

Japan’s yen is backward, at least so far as its trading direction may be concerned. This is all the more confusing especially over the past few months when this rising yen has actually been aiding the dollar crash narrative while in reality moving the opposite way from how the dollar system would be behaving if it was really happening. A dollar crash, or even just a true reflationary dollar drop, would be JPY negative (like 2017). Ever since the last one, during...

We have argued that the road to an orderly Brexit remains arduous and that sterling had entered an important technical area ($1.2500-$1.2530). At the same time, see the dollar as having approached the upper end of its broad trading range against the yen. One of the important drivers lifting the dollar was the dramatic rise in US yields. We thought that move is counter trend and that yields are headed lower again. These views could be expressed in a short-sterling...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.11% to 1.0851 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The confrontation in Hong Kong and the fallout from the Argentine primary over the weekend join concerns the conflict between the two largest economies and slower growth to force the animal spirits into hibernation. Global equities remain under pressure. Japan’s Topix joined several...

There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on July 31. We never thought the chances of a 50 bp move were anything but negligible, though even at this late stage, the market appears to be pricing in about a one-in-five chance. Although a minority, and maybe worth a dissent or two (Rosengren? George?), we are sympathetic to those Fed officials that do not...