Friday , March 29 2024
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Tag Archives: inflation

China Data Dump Keeps Market Looking for a Rate Cut Next Week

Overview:  The mostly consolidative week for the US dollar continues. Most for the G10 currencies are +/- about 0.25% today and only a slightly wider range for the week. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March is virtually unchanged on the week at around 75%. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is practically flat on the day and week. The Russian ruble and Mexican peso lead today's advancers, while eastern and central European currencies are laggards. The...

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Can the US CPI Break the Dollar out of its Consolidation?

Overview: Stocks and bonds are trading higher, and the dollar is narrowly mixed ahead of the December US CPI report. Most of the large bourses in Asia Pacific advanced, led by Japan to new 30-year-plus highs. Hong Kong's Hang Seng snapped seven-day slide to post its first gain of 2024. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.33%, to recoup most of its losses in the past two sessions. US index futures enjoy a modest upside bias. Benchmark 10-year yields in Europe are off...

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Consolidation Featured

Overview: After dramatic intraday price swings after the US jobs data and service ISM figures before the weekend, the dollar is consolidating today in mostly narrow ranges. The prospect for a March cut by the Federal Reserve finished last Friday virtually unchanged (73% vs 70%) and is about 66% chance today. There was interest in Dallas Fed's Logan's suggestion that the tapering of QT be discussed, though it seems to simply confirm what many has suspected as the use...

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2023: A year in review

After the catastrophic covid crisis of 2020 and 2021, the extremely impactful and consequential Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many hoped that 2023 would break this terrible bad spell and finally present us all with some hope, economically, geopolitically, socially, technologically. Unfortunately, it only offered further reasons for serious concerns on all these fronts.  Economically, even though the official inflation rate followed a downward trajectory, in most major...

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