Tag Archives: Featured

The ECB meets tomorrow and is widely expected to stand pat. Macro forecasts may be tweaked modestly and there are some risks of jawboning against the stronger euro, but it should otherwise be an uneventful meeting. Looking ahead, a lot of room remains for further ECB actions. We expect the ECB to increase QE at the December 10 meeting. However, another rate cut seems very unlikely, as does activation of OMT. POSSIBLE NEXT STEPS 1. Jawbone the euro weaker – POSSIBLE...

Interview with Theodore Deden Claudio Grass (CG): Looking at the damage inflicted upon supply chains, production facilities and global trade in particular, how quickly could these operations snap back even if all COVID-related restrictions were lifted tomorrow? Do you think we’ll eventually get back to business as usual, or have we now experienced a permanent shift to a “new normal”? Theodore Deden (TD): Forget about the legal COVID-related restrictions. If it were...

In the wake of the economically disastrous covid-19 shutdowns, the political class has desperately tried to save the failing euro system. On July 21 European leaders agreed on what they called a “historic” deal. It was nothing more than a multitrillion euro stimulus package. However, it is more probable that the “recovery fund” will delay any chance of a much-needed economic restructuring taking place. What it will do is waste scarce resources and capital while...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.0802 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 9(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: investing.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview:  News that the AstraZeneca Phase 3 test had to be stopped to study the adverse reaction of one subject added to the uncertainty of investors amid one of the more significant reversals of risk appetites since March.  Equities continued to slump in the Asia Pacific region, with many...

Zurich, 09 September 2020 – Art Basel and UBS today published a 2020 mid-year survey ‘The Impact of COVID-19 on the Gallery Sector’ written by renowned cultural economist Dr. Clare McAndrew, Founder of Arts Economics. The survey findings present an analysis of how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted 795 galleries operating in the Modern and contemporary gallery sector, representing 60 different markets across all levels of turnover, throughout the first six months of...

Mexico has recorded 634,023 coronavirus infections and 67,558 confirmed deaths, the world’s fourth highest death toll. Copyright 2020 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. People arriving in Switzerland from Belgium, Mexico and Luxembourg will no longer have to go into quarantine for ten days. The Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) on Monday updated its list of countries deemed to have a high risk of coronavirus infection and removed Belgium, Mexico,...

Japan’s yen is backward, at least so far as its trading direction may be concerned. This is all the more confusing especially over the past few months when this rising yen has actually been aiding the dollar crash narrative while in reality moving the opposite way from how the dollar system would be behaving if it was really happening. A dollar crash, or even just a true reflationary dollar drop, would be JPY negative (like 2017). Ever since the last one, during...

Misguided lockdowns have destroyed the global economy and the impact is likely to last for years. The fallacy of the “lives or the economy” argument is evident now that we see that countries like Taiwan, South Korea, Austria, Sweden, and Holland have been able to preserve the business fabric and the economy while doing a much better job managing the pandemic than countries with severe lockdowns. One of the most alarming facts about this crisis is the pace at which...

The US Fed is considering lifting its inflation target above 2 percent in order to revive the economy. Contrary to the accepted practice, the Fed is not expected to raise an alarm if the measured price inflation begins to rise. The US central bank is not expected to counter this increase with a tighter monetary stance as in the past. In fact, the idea is to continue robust monetary pumping until the economic data points toward a strong economy. According to most...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.09% to 1.0813 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 8(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The markets remain on edge. US-China tensions are escalating. Strained Brexit talks are set to resume today. Profit-taking in the tech space has continued. The ECB meeting is around the corner. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a three-day slide today with most markets moving...