Tag Archives: Featured

Basic intuition says this is a no-brainer. Producer prices rise, businesses then pass along these higher input costs to their customers in the form of consumer price “inflation” so as to preserve profits. This is the supply chain hypothesis. Statistically, we’d therefore expect the PPI to lead the CPI. And this was expected for much of Economics’ history, taken for granted as one of those self-evident truths (kind of like the Inflation Fairy). After the dreadful...

In certain quarters, “scientific” quarters, the Chinese haven’t just done a fantastic job managing their own outbreak of COVID-19, the Communist government has produced a pandemic response model for the entire world to envy. After all, according to the WHO’s most recent data (up to December 15, 2021), only 5,697 of the nation’s citizens have died of (with?) corona since the whole thing began. Outside the WHO and partisan political circles, of course, no one believes...

Overview: The combination of the volatility and a large number of central bank meetings have exhausted market participants, and the holiday phase appears to have begun. Equities are under pressure following the sell-off yesterday in the US. Japan, China, and Hong Kong suffered more than 1.2% losses, while Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan posted minor gains. It was the fifth loss in the past six sessions for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off...

The bank said it was willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market “as necessary” to mitigate upward pressure on the franc. Keystone / Peter Klaunzer The Swiss National Bank has decided to stick to its expansionary monetary policy, a day after the US Federal Reserve announced it was tightening monetary policies amid rising inflation. On Thursday, the SNB announcedExternal link it was keeping the monetary policy rate at -0.75%. In doing so the bank wrote in a...

The SNB is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy. It is thus ensuring price stability and supporting the Swiss economy in its recovery from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. It is keeping the SNB policy rate and interest on sight deposits at the SNB at −0.75%, and remains willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, in order to counter upward pressure on the Swiss franc. In so doing, it takes the overall currency situation into...

Throughout much of the past century, the idea of a gold standard for national currencies has been routinely linked with laissez-faire economics and “classical liberalism”—also known as “libertarianism.” It’s not difficult to see why. During the second half of the nineteenth century—as free-market liberalism was especially influential in much of Western Europe—it was the liberals who pushed for the adoption of the system we now know as the classical gold standard...

One quick note on yesterday’s retail sales estimates in the US for the month of November 2021. The increase for them was less than had been expected, but these were hardly awful by any rational measure. Instead, they seemed to further indicate only what we had proposed upon release of the October estimates: Christmas shopping came a bit early for more shoppers than otherwise. Not terribly dramatic by any means, yet noticeable. Even the “real” series adjusted for,...

I have always had a bad attitude toward official secrets regardless of who is keeping them. That prejudice and John Kenneth Galbraith are to blame for an unauthorized withdrawal I made from the World Bank. When I lived in Boston in the late 1970s, I paid $25 to attend a series of lectures by Galbraith on foreign aid and other topics. The louder Galbraith praised foreign aid, the warier I became. His hokum spurred my reading and led me to recognize that foreign aid is...

Overview:  The Fed's hawkish pivot came a few weeks before yesterday's FOMC meeting, which confirmed more or less what the market had already largely anticipated. Buy the (dollar) on rumors (of tapering and more aggressive stance on rates) and sell the fact unfolded, and unleashed the risk-appetites which rippled through the capital markets. US stocks rallied yesterday, and the futures point to a gap higher opening today. Large Asia Pacific bourses, led by a 2%...

A view of the Alps inside the Swiss pavilion at Expo 2020 Dubai. Www.sebastiencrettaz.com The Swiss pavilion at the ongoing Universal Exposition in Dubai leads the visitor through Alpine landscapes in a show of light and shadows to showcase Swiss sustainability, urbanisation and innovation. It is a concept that seems to appeal to the public, despite the pandemic and the many contradictions that characterise the Gulf region. With an investment of CHF16.5 million...