Tag Archives: Featured

By nearly any measure one chooses, the dollar is historically rich. When it does turn, it would likely be dramatic. That is what happened after the stronger-than-expected US CPI figures. However, the lack of follow-through is what one would expect if the greenback’s bull move was intact.Still, we expect the dollar’s super-cycle is entering a new phase. The market has practically priced in a 5.0% terminal Fed funds rate, and we suspect that it needs clear guidance...

In my previous article on the college problem, I discussed the cultural factors that have contributed to the falling value of a university degree, which I hoped would show that we cannot reduce the decline of higher education to public policy failures. However, bad policy has been a major contributor to the problems plaguing the university system, both at the federal and state levels. President Joe Biden’s plan to eliminate up to $20,000 of student loan debt for...

So Ben Bernanke has won a Nobel Prize for kicking a can down the road! Many will have heard the saying ‘those who do not learn from history, are doomed to repeat it’. It is often attributed to Churchill, but he was in fact quoting George Santanya. We prefer the Stephen Hawking quote, ‘“We spend a great deal of time studying history, which, let’s face it, is mostly the history of stupidity.” as this feels more apt in this day and age. Below we outline the Nobel-prize...

Popular thinking says that banks are the key factor in the expansion of credit. However, is this really the case? For example, take a farmer Joe that produces two kilograms of potatoes. For his own consumption, he requires one kilogram, and lends the rest for one year to a farmer Bob. The unconsumed one kilogram of potatoes that he agrees to lend is his savings. The precondition for lending is that there must be savings first, as lending must be backed by savings. By...

Die nächste Crypto-Plattform hat sich den internationalen Sanktionen gebeugt und wird russische Nutzer von seinem Dienst ausschließen. Am 27. Oktober tritt die Regelung in Kraft – sie wird dazu führen, dass Konten mit Verbindungen zu Russland blockiert werden. Crypto News: Blockchain.com wird russische Crypto-Konten blockenBis zum fälligen Datum können allerdings noch die Mittel in den Konten auf Blockchain.com ausgezahlt werden. Diese Option verfällt jedoch nach dem...

The latest US employment and inflation figures are passed. The market is confident of a 75 bp rate hike next month. While a 50 bp in December is still the odds-on favorite, the market has a slight chance (~15%) of a 100 bp move instead after the robust jobs report and stronger-than-expected September CPI. The implied yield of the December Fed funds futures has ground higher for 12 consecutive sessions to about 4.23%. After two straight quarters of contraction, the...

In today’s world, dominated as it is by the ephemeral, the superficial, and the inconsequential, it can be hard for a rational, dispassionate observer to make sense of what is going on—politically, socially, economically, and philosophically. It is that last aspect that gets the least “oxygen” in mainstream media, in public education, and in pretty much all debates and disagreements we grapple with as a society. Perhaps the very discipline of Philosophy, academically...

Switzerland has been criticised for turning a blind eye to legal advisors and others who allow wealthy people to hide their money. © Keystone / Gaetan Bally The Swiss government has asked the finance ministry to draft a bill to increase transparency of beneficial owners of legal entities to help tackle financial crime. The bill should introduce a central register for identifying beneficial owners and new obligations when it comes to risks of financial crime, the...

Schon länger sind Entwicklungen zu beobachten, die eine kaum zu unterschätzende Gefahr für Leben, Freiheit und das Streben nach Glück darstellen, wie etwa eine zunehmende Politisierung aller Lebensbereiche, die Verbreitung kollektivistischer Denkhaltungen oder der Trend zum digitalen gläsernen Menschen. Derzeit erleben wir die Phase, in welcher diese Entwicklungen die nächste Eskalationsstufe erreichen und durch vermehrte Verzahnung untereinander noch gefährlicher...

Trying to restore a system that is spiraling away from equilibrium with new extremes of obsolete, misguided policies only accelerates the swings from apparent stability to cascading chaos. The conventional view of the market is there are two sides to every trade and one is right and the other is wrong.The punters who correctly read the tea leaves and who were right scored gains on their trade and those punters whose forecast was wrong lost their bet. But what if...