Tag Archives: Featured

Overview: China’s new initiatives to support the property sector helped lift the Hang Seng. And while the China’s CSI 300 edged higher both the Shanghai and Shenzhen composites fell. Most Asia Pacific markets fell, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 is posting a small gain. US futures are sporting modest losses. European benchmark 10-year yields are 3-5 bp lower, including UK Gilts ahead of Thursday’s budget that is expected to confirm new borrowing (Office for Budget...

Much is made of the failure of Republicans to make predicted gains in the recent midterm elections, but, as Ryan McMaken has pointed out, Congress plays a much-diminished role in national governance to the point that even had the so-called Red Wave actually occurred, it is doubtful that much would have changed regarding Joe Biden’s presidency. In fact, most of what Biden has done in his two years in office has been outside of Congressional legislative matters....

According to the Austrian business cycle theory, the boom-bust cycle emerges in response to a deviation in the market interest rate from the natural interest rate, or the equilibrium interest rate. As a rule, it is held, the tampering with market interest rates by the central bank sets the boom-bust cycle in motion. Given this viewpoint, one might suggest that even with a gold standard without a central bank, an increase in the supply of gold money will lead to the...

Der Kampf der EZB gegen die Rekordinflation wird zum Teil von einer Haushaltspolitik konterkariert, die zu viel Geld ausgibt, um die steigenden Lebenshaltungskosten abzufedern, sagte Ratsmitglied Robert Holzmann. “Die Fiskalpolitik ist aufgrund der sozialen Verwerfungen, die die Inflation hervorruft, genötigt Interventionen vorzunehmen”, sagte der Gouverneur der Oesterreichischen Nationalbank (OeNB) am Freitag vor Journalisten in Wien. “Das Problem, das wir in Europa...

A few days in bed might also help to recover from flu. Keystone / Martin Ruetschi The Swiss health authorities and the manufacturer AstraZeneca are at loggerheads over a nasal spray to vaccinate children and adolescents against influenza. The British-Swedish manufacturer told the Swiss Keystone-SDA agency that it had been asked by the Federal Office of Public Health to introduce its product in Switzerland two years ago. However, the health office had later set...

One thing I can tell you for certain about last week’s big rally on Thursday and Friday: there were a lot of people who desperately wanted a good excuse to buy stocks. And buy they did after a better-than-expected CPI report Thursday morning, pushing the S&P 500 up nearly 6% on the week with all of that coming on Thursday and Friday. The same could be said of bonds which also had a good week, with the aggregate index up 2.3%. The stock market rally probably says...

When bubbles pop, it’s natural selection at its most unforgiving: “adapt or die,” and those who ignore or discount consequential asymmetries will have a very difficult time navigating the triage. After years of relative stability, it seems asymmetries, distortions and denial are playing out in unexpectedly destabilizing ways. These complex and often opaque dynamics are interacting with each other and reinforcing each other in difficult to predict ways. No wonder...

The role of energy supply is crucial for economic growth in Switzerland according to KOF director Jan-Egbert Sturm. Keystone / Arno Balzarini Economic researcher Jan-Egbert Sturm expects the Swiss economy to stagnate in the next few months. The director of the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) at Federal Institute ETH Zurich, said Switzerland had been been quite resilient in the current economic environment. “Resilience is based on stable political institutions, a...

Even before the softer-than-expected US inflation, we had been suggesting the dollar was in the process of carving out a significant high. Our strongest conviction was that sterling bottomed in late September at a record low near $1.0350. Our conviction had also been growing that the greenback has topped against the Canadian dollar, a little shy of our CAD1.40 target. Short-term trend followers and momentum traders have to adjust positions, and long-term structural...

Policymakers have often said that exchange rates should reflect fundamentals. What does that really mean? Can they do anything but that? It begs the question of which fundamental factors they should reflect. Therein lies the rub. We are still struck by the latest Bank for International Settlements figures. Their survey found that the average daily turnover in the foreign exchange market was $7.5 trillion a day. World trade last year was about $22.5 trillion. The...