Following the seemingly endless procession of short-squeeze-fueling trial balloons last week – from settlement rumors to German blue-chip bailouts to Qatari investors – Germany’s Bild newspaper confirms the rumors that sparked weakness on Friday: Deutsche bank CEO John Cryan has failed to reach an agreement with the US Justice Department. John Cryan - Click to enlarge Having soared over 25% off the briefly...
Read More »Swiss Franc Net Shorts Getting Reduced
Swiss Franc Last week SNB Q3 window cleaning that led to a big CHF net short position. This week this changed again. Both longs and shorts on CHF increased, but the net short position fell. During the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders week ending October 4, speculators took on risk. Of the sixteen gross currency positions we track, speculators added to their exposure in all but five. Bulls and bears saw...
Read More »Emerging Markets: What has Changed
Summary China reported lower than expected September reserve figures. Polish central bank Governor Glapinski adjusted the forward guidance. Brazil will open up development of its so-called pre-salt oil fields to foreign companies. Colombia’s referendum on the FARC peace agreement failed by a razor-thin 50.2% to 49.8% margin. In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Brazil (+5.3%), Czech Republic (+4.4%), and...
Read More »British Pounding
Flash-Crashed Earlier this morning the British Pound suddenly found itself on the receiving end of a 6% flash crash during Asian trading hours. Some of the losses have been recouped since then, but that will be of little consolation to anyone who may have been long the GBP overnight. Oops. Photo credit: Time & Life Pictures / Getty Images - Click to enlarge Now before you strike this up to some ‘fat...
Read More »FX Weekly Review, October 03-07: Dollar Profits on Strong ISM Index
Swiss Franc Currency Index The Franc index lost considerably in the last week, in particularly in comparison to the dollar index. Reason was the exceptionally strong U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. Marc Chandler speaks about the jobs report that is rather a lagging indicator, but I like to focus on the leading index., the ISM.My view is confirmed by the stronger dollar that reflect the ISM index, but not the...
Read More »FX Daily, October 07: Sterling Stabilizes After Harrowing Drop, Now Jobs
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, October 07 2016. - Click to enlarge FX Rates Sterling again steals the limelight. In early Asia, sterling inexplicably dropped nearly eight cents in minutes (to ~$1840), and on some platforms, may have traded below $1.1380. It almost immediately rebounded but has not resurfaced above $1.2480. Over the last couple of years,there have been a number of sudden dramatic moves...
Read More »Weekly Swiss Markets: Stocks fluctuated on central bank statements
SMI The Swiss Market Index is set to finish the week mainly unchanged, outperforming global stocks modestly while markets fluctuated on speculation that the US Fed will increase interest-rate later this year. SMI Index, October 7 - Click to enlarge Economic Data Global equity markets oscillated this week while the dollar strengthened, reflecting renewed investor concerns that the US Federal Reserve would raise...
Read More »Switzerland’s central bank offers a glimpse behind the curtain
The Swiss National Bank is offering a rare look into how it sets monetary policy. A video of SNB President Thomas Jordan and fellow members of the governing board shows them beginning their quarterly policy assessment discussing the state of the economy with about 30 people. According to the voiceover, the group comprises experts from different departments engaged in a question-and-answer session. [embedded content]...
Read More »US and Canada Jobs: Sill Strong Enough for a Rate Hike
United States The US grew 156k jobs in August, missing the median estimate by about 16k. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, September 7(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, ). Unemployment Rate The July series was revised up by 16k. The unemployment and participate rate ticked up 0.1% to 5.0%… U.S. Unemployment Rate, September 2016(see more posts on U.S. unemployment rate, ). Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge...
Read More »Algos, Barriers, Rumors: Some Theories On What Caused The Pound Flash Crash
As reported moments ago, just around 7:07pm ET, cable snapped and plunged by what some say may have been as much as 1200 pips, dropping from 1.26 to as low as 1.14 according to some brokers, before snapping back up. GBP/USD, October 7 - Click to enlarge What caused the move? While nobody knows the catalyst behind the flash crash yet, Bloomberg has compiled several potential explanations. “The GBP/USD slide could...
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