Tag Archives: Featured

The cruelest part, perhaps, of this economic condition globally is how it plays against type. In all prior cycles, economies of all kinds and orientations all over the globe would go into recession and then bounce right of it once at the bottom. It was often difficult to see the bottom, of course, but once recovery happened there was no arguing against it. Since the Great “Recession”, which was global, no matter what...

Headlines Week February 13, 2017 Recently inflation rose more quickly in the euro zone, but this was mostly caused by a temporary oil price effect. Therefore the ECB might be dovish for a longer period than the SNB. Consumer price inflation will decide who is more dovish. Ultimately inflation will depend on the two key parameters wages and rents. Rents will rise first in Switzerland, while the Euro zone has downwards...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary: Trump has moderated in several areas, he is being checked in others, and less impactful in others. This will underscore the focus on Yellen’s testimony this week. At same time, many will be reluctant to short the dollar ahead of the tax reform plans that may be unveiled in Trump’s upcoming speech to Congress. There is a lull in the maelstrom launched by the Trump Administration.  His ban on...

Stock Markets EM FX ended last week on a firm note. Falling US rates allowed many foreign currencies to gain some traction. This week, a heavy US data slate is likely to test the market’s convictions on the Fed, with January PPI, CPI, IP, and retail sales all being reported. Yellen also testifies before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Stock Markets Emerging Markets February 08 Source: economist.com - Click...

  Swiss Franc Currency Index The major information about the Swiss economy since the beginning of the year were: New record in exports and in the trade surplus, albeit mostly driven by a few sectors: pharmaceuticals and chemicals. Considerable improvement of the consumer sentiment Improvement of the UBS consumption indicator. While in 2015, the trade surplus still expanded, we see clear tendencies that in 2017 the...

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China does not publish any of the big three data series (Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment) for the month of January. It combines January data with February data because of the large distortions caused by Lunar New Year holidays. Unlike Western holidays that are but a single day, the Golden Week is a week, and therefore when the calendar points do not...

20 Minutes. © Jibmeyer | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge Switzerland could drop daylight savings. Currently, Switzerland’s Federal Council sees no reason to abandon it, however if Switzerland’s neighbours did it would follow, mainly for economic reasons said the Federal council. National councilor Yvette Estermann (UDC/SVP), who is fiercely opposed to daylight saving, took the opportunity to point out the negative...

For the last several weeks, we have been looking for the dollar correction that began around the Fed’s rate hike in the middle of December to be completed and for the uptrend to resume. The precise timing of the turn is difficult to get right, but our view is anchored by our macroeconomic assessment and is understanding of the key drivers. Our technical work suggests the dollar indeed has been carving out a bottom, and...

Summary Reserve Bank of India signaled an end to the easing cycle. S&P moved the outlook on Indonesia’s BBB- rating from stable to positive. The ruling Law and Justice party in Poland may be backing off of plans to force banks to convert $36 bln in foreign currency loans. Romanian Justice Minister Lordache resigned. Local press is reporting that Brazil’s central bank may cut the 2019 inflation target from 4.5% to...