Tag Archives: Featured

The Los Angeles Times today asked the question only the mainstream would ask. “Wages are growing and surveys show consumer confidence is high. So why are motor vehicle sales taking a hit?” Indeed, the results reported earlier by the auto sector were the kind of sobering figures that might make any optimist wonder. Across the board, and for the fourth straight month, there was almost all negatives, some still large....

  An Old Seasonal Truism Most people are probably aware of the saying “sell in May and go away”. This popular seasonal Wall Street truism implies that the market’s performance is far worse in the six summer months than in the six winter months. Numerous studies have been undertaken particularly with respect to US stock markets, which confirm the  relative weakness of the stock market in the summer months. What is the...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The election of Macron as French President has set off a bout of position adjustment that has seen the euro push back into the $1.0850-$1.0950 range that had confined activity for the two weeks between the first and second rounds of the French presidential election. The euro fell a cent yesterday after...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Frexit Threat Macronized The dollar moved strongly, and is now over 25mg gold and 1.9g silver. This was a holiday-shortened week, due to the Early May bank holiday in the UK. The big news as we write this, Macron beat Le Pen in the French election. We suppose this means markets can continue to do what they wanted to do...

UBS shareholders overwhelmingly approved executive bonuses at the bank’s annual general meeting on Thursday. Why such a difference from the Credit Suisse shareholder rebellion seen just one week ago? Both Swiss banks have experienced hard times since their heyday before the financial crash. The shares of both banks have been trading in similar territory (CHF15-17) in recent months from 2007 highs of CHF89 for Credit...

The economic reports since the last economic update were generally less than expected and disappointing. The weak growth of the last few years had been supported by autos and housing while energy has been a wildcard. When oil prices fell, starting in mid-2014 and bottoming in early 2016, economic growth suffered as the shale industry retrenched. I said during that entire time that while the problems in the energy...

Headlines Week May 08, 2017 The centre-left politician Macron has won the French elections. He is a politician that – similar to Hollande four years ago – promises economic improvements, move investment, more jobs. Mostly probably he will fail similar to his predecessor because the French economic reality is simply different. His success moved the EUR/CHF up to 1.0865, mostly caused by FX speculators. But serious...

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) Registered unemployment in April 2017 – At the end of April 2017, 146,327 unemployed persons were registered with the Regional Employment Services Centers (RAV), according to the SECO surveys, 5,953 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate thus fell from 3.4% in March 2017 to 3.3% in the reporting month.  Switzerland Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted,...

In the first few months of the year, a trading desk rumor emerged that even as institutional traders dumped stocks and retail investors piled into ETFs, a “mystery” central bank was quietly bidding up risk assets by aggressively buying stocks. And no, it was not the BOJ: while the Japanese Central Bank’s interventions in the stock market are familiar to all by now, and as we reported last night on sessions when the “the...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US Dollar Index initially fell to its lowest level since mid-November to 98.50. It rebounded but stalled in front of the pre-weekend high near 99.00. This area must be overcome to lift the tone. Sterling stretched to a marginal high but faded in front of $1.30. Initial support is seen...