The euro appears to have carved out head and shoulder top. As this Great Graphic depicts, the euro was sold through the neckline at the end of last week and is 1% below it today. It is not unusual for the neckline to be retested. It is found near $1.15. It also dovetails with our near-term caution given that the euro is likely to close below its Bollinger Band for the second consecutive session (~$1.1440). The left...
Read More »Gold Sector – An Obscure Indicator Provides a Signal
The Goldminbi In recent weeks gold apparently decided it would be a good time to masquerade as an emerging market currency and it started mirroring the Chinese yuan of all things. Since the latter is non-convertible this almost feels like an insult of sorts. As an aside to this, bitcoin seems to be frantically searching for a new position somewhere between the South African rand the Turkish lira. The bears are busy...
Read More »Fat Cattle Force Farmers to Call for ‘New Model Cow’
Swiss cows have to be in shape to make it up the mountain for summer (Keystone) Many Swiss cows are getting too heavy for soft Alpine pastures, too wide for their stalls and too gluttonous for their owners. An interest group is now calling for cows to be bred that are smaller, lighter and more easily sated. Some cows are more than 1.60 metres (5’3”) in height and tip the scales at more than 800 kilograms (1,760...
Read More »Capital Controls Next? Lira Rebounds After Turkey Bank Regulator Limits FX Swap Operations
In the first tentative step toward the final option available for Erdogan to halt the Lira’s accelerating collapse – which crashed as low as 7.2362 earlier after the Wellington FX open following the the Turkish president’s latest belligerent comments – namely capital controls, the Turkish Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency imposed a limit on the amount of foreign currency and lira swap and swap-like transactions,...
Read More »Monetary Consequence of Tariffs, Report 12 August 2018
Last week in Monetary Paradigm Reset, we talked about the challenge of explaining a new paradigm. We said: “The hard part of accepting this paradigm shift, was that people had to rethink their entire view of cosmology, theology, and philosophy. In the best case, people take time to grapple with these challenges to their idea of man’s place in the universe. Some never accept the new idea.” We were talking about the fact...
Read More »FX Daily, August 13: Turkey Drives Risk-Off, but Pressure Abating
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.12% to 1.1351. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The failure of Turkey to grab the bull by the horns, so to speak, and come to grips with the situation saw the dollar soar above TRY7.23(from TRY6.43 at the end of last week) and to ZAR15.55 (from ZAR14.09). The Mexican peso, the strongest...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Testing the Dollar’s Breakout
The US dollar surged last week, with the Dollar Index rising 1.25%, the most since April. The dollar is being boosted by two drivers. The first is the policy mix and interest rate divergence. The other is the intensification of pressure on emerging market. Turkey has a disastrous combination of more fundamentals, large short-term foreign currency debt obligations, unorthodox policies, and the lack of credibility. On top...
Read More »Robot-built pergola showcases Swiss digital fabrication skills
Istituto Svizzero, the Swiss cultural centre in Rome, gets some welcome shade thanks to a computer-designed, robot-built pergola. The four-metre tall construction was inaugurated in June and was the handiwork of 17 architecture students at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ). The pergola was put together without using nails, glue or screws. The structure is made completely of timber and is held...
Read More »Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead
Stock Markets EM FX came under greater pressure last week as the situation in Turkey deteriorated. With no weekend developments as of this writing, we expect Turkish assets to remain under pressure this week. Five worst EM currencies YTD are TRY (-41%), ARS (-36%), RUB (-15%), BRL (-14.5%), and ZAR (-12%). All five have serious baggage that warrants continued underperformance.Yet it’s worth noting that the five best...
Read More »Two In-Depth Interviews
Keith had two more in-depth, ideaful interviews. Keith was interviewed on the Jason Stapleton Program. Keith had a lively discussion with Peter Bell and Mickey Fulp, the Mercenary Geologist. Related posts: Gold to Enter New Bull Market – Charles Nenner An Inquiry into Austrian Investing: Profits, Protection and Pitfalls The Great Gold Upgrade, Report...
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