Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.14% at 1.1262 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US and China kept their trade guns cocked at each other but offered the last opportunity for a negotiated settlement before escalation. What is billed as a 90-day freeze on tariff increases is really only 60 days beyond January 1...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Dramatic Week Ends with Whimper?
Overview: There is an eerie calm in the capital markets today as the G20 meeting gets underway. There is much uncertainty, and the event calendar is chock full next week, with the Brexit debate getting underway in the UK Parliament, the CDU picks a new leader to replace Merkel, possible partial US government closure, Powell’s testimony before Congress, OPEC+ meeting, and US employment data. In Asia, the rise of Japanese...
Read More »FX Daily, November 29: Reluctant to Extend Dollar Losses
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.39% at 1.1337 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 29 Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The biggest US equity advance since Q1 has helped lift global markets today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth session, and nearly all the bourses in the region rallied with the notable exception of China and Hong Kong. Almost all the sectors in Europe are...
Read More »FX Daily, November 28: Powell Awaited
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.10% at 1.1262 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Global capital markets are relatively calm as investors gird for drama. The Bank of England reports its assessment of the impact of Brexit and the stress tests a little before Fed Chair Powell speaks at midday in NY. The G20 meeting...
Read More »FX Daily, November 27: Market Shrugs Off Latest US Tariff Provocation
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.12% at 1.1293 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets have taken the US latest tariff threats in stride. Most of the Asian equity markets advanced, including Japan, Korea, Taiwan, India, and Australia. China and Hong Kong were exceptions with marginal losses....
Read More »Near-term Outlook
There are three key scheduled events between now and the end of the year. In chronological order, this weekend G20 meeting is first. It will shape expectations for trade tensions between the US and China, with extensive secondary impact. Saudi Arabia and Russia’s meeting may help shape expectations for the price of oil, which has collapsed here in Q4 18. The ECB meets on December 13 with new staff forecasts (likely...
Read More »FX Daily, November 23: Friday
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.27% at 1.1311 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies. Japanese and Indian markets were closed for holidays and a weaker than expected flash EMU PMI helped keep the euro pinned near this week’s lows. Although the EU seemed...
Read More »Cool Video: CNBC Squawk Box
I was part of the “Trading Block” on CNBC earlier today. The sharp fall in stocks and oil would have led many, like Joe, to anticipate dollar weakness. Instead, the dollar rallied. Perhaps, I suggested, the dollar was acting like a safe haven. Bill yields are high enough to make cash a reasonable alternative to park one’s savings. Even though the US economy is slowing from the fiscal goose of more than 4% in Q2 and more...
Read More »FX Daily, November 21: A Semblance of Stability Returns
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.26% at 1.134 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Yesterday’s frenzy has burnt itself out for the moment. Equities began recovering in Asia after early losses. China, including Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand closed higher and European markets are recouping some of yesterday’s...
Read More »FX Daily, November 20: Equity Slide Continues
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.50% at 1.132 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Yesterday’s 3% drop in the NASDAQ is setting the tone for today. The US stock market advance had been led by a narrow group of equities, and those have come under strong pressure amid slower consumer demand and stricter export control....
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