Tag Archives: DXY

Is the dollar heading to new heights or new lows? Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital joins the Gold Exchange Podcast LIVE in New Orleans! Listen to Brent discuss the historic rise of the DXY, the effects on (d)emerging markets, and how he sees a currency and sovereign debt crisis playing out. Will Powell be able to solve Triffin’s Dilemma? Can foreign central banks escape the zugzwang position? Will the financial justice warriors finally be vindicated? Watch the full...

It’s never just one thing or another. Take, for example, collateral scarcity. By itself, it’s already a problem but it may not be enough to bring the whole system to reverse. A good illustration would be 2017. Throughout that whole year, T-bill rates (4-week, in particular) kept indicating this very shortfall, especially the repeated instances when equivalent bill yields would go below the RRP “floor” and often stay there for prolonged periods. There was, as I wrote...

Brazil’s stock market was rocked yesterday by politics. The country’s “populist” President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he was going to name an army general who had served with Bolsomito (a nickname given to him by supporters) during that country’s prior military dictatorship as CEO of state-owned oil giant Petróleo Brasileiro SA. Gen. Joaquim Silva e Luna is being installed, allegedly, to facilitate more direct control of the company by the federal government. With the...

This isn’t about COVID. It’s been building since the end of August, a shift in mood, perception, and reality that began turning things several months before even then. With markets fickle yet again, a lot today, what’s going on here? What you’ll hear or have already heard is something about Europe and more lockdowns, fears about a second wave of the pandemic. No, that doesn’t fit the herdlike change in direction you can observe across many different markets (below)....

Is the global economy on the mend as everyone at least here in America is now assuming? For anyone else to attempt to answer that question, they might first have to figure out what went wrong in the first place. Most have simply assumed, and continue to assume, it has been fallout from the “trade wars.” That is a demonstrably false guess, one easily dispelled by the facts. A trade war produces winners from its losers. But we cannot find a single one. There have...

The CRB index has been trending lower since late May. It fell nearly 10% to retrace 50% of the rally come June 2017. This Great Graphic shows the 4 1/2 month trendline. It had been violated in late August but fell back under it at the end of last week. On Monday, it gapped higher, above the trendline. Today it filled the gap and rallied to new session highs. A move above 192.00 would likely confirm a bottom of some...

Americans are spending more on filling up. A lot more. According the Census Bureau, retail sales at gasoline stations had increased by nearly 20% year-over-year (unadjusted) in both May and June 2018. In the latest figures for July, released today, gasoline station sales were up by more than 21%. The last time they surged this much was September 2011, also the last time oil prices were having this big of an effect on...

The US Dollar Index has been trending higher since early May.  This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg shows, that it has been successfully tested several times. It appears set to be re-tested in the coming days.  It comes in near 94.80 today and rises a little more than two ticks a day to finish the week near 94.90. Technical indicators, like the RSI, MACDs, and Slow Stochastics suggest there is reasonably good...

Summary: Our bullish dollar outlook was based on divergence and we judge it to still be intact. The Dollar Index has been trading broadly sideways since March 2015, but never did more than a minimum retacement of its earlier rally. The Dollar index is at it highest level since March today. Our underlying constructive outlook for the US dollar remains intact.  It is broadly based on the divergence between the...