Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.41% to 1.1282. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Corrective pressures grip the capital markets today, helped by the easing of the selling pressure on Turkey, but its more a respite than a relief as no new policy initiatives are behind the lira’s upticks. The implication of this is that it...
Read More »FX Daily, August 13: Turkey Drives Risk-Off, but Pressure Abating
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.12% to 1.1351. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The failure of Turkey to grab the bull by the horns, so to speak, and come to grips with the situation saw the dollar soar above TRY7.23(from TRY6.43 at the end of last week) and to ZAR15.55 (from ZAR14.09). The Mexican peso, the strongest...
Read More »The Yin and Yang of the US-China Relationship
Chimerica always seemed like an oversimplification of a complex and dialectic relationship between the US and China. However, it did express an underlying truth, that China’s rise over the last 40 years has been predicated on Deng Xiaoping’s political and economic reforms and, importantly, the world of free-trade (a reduction in tariff barriers to trade) promoted by the United States. America seems to hold two seemingly...
Read More »What Chinese Trade Shows Us About SHIBOR
Why is SHIBOR falling from an economic perspective? Simple again. China’s growth both on its own and as a reflection of actual global growth has stalled. And in a dynamic, non-linear world stalled equals trouble. Going all the way back to early 2017, there’s been no acceleration (and more than a little deceleration). The reflation economy got started in 2016 but it never went anywhere. For most of last year, optimists...
Read More »FX Daily, August 09: Sterling Remains Under Pressure, while the Greenback Firms Broadly
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.48% to 1.1476 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The global capital markets are mostly quiet. US sanctions on Turkey and Russia are pressuring their respective currencies, and the New Zealand dollar has slumped nearly 1.5% on the back of a dovish hold by the central bank. The Kiwi is...
Read More »FX Daily, August 08: Sterling Can’t Get Out of Its Own Way, While Dollar and Yen Catch a Bid
Fears that the UK could leave the EU in a little over six months without an agreement continues to drag sterling lower. Recall that over the weekend, the UK’s International Trade Minister Fox suggested there was a 60% chance of a no-deal Brexit. A few days earlier BOE Carney said that although it was not the most likely scenario, the risks such a departure were “higher than comfort.” Sterling is lower for a fifth...
Read More »FX Daily, August 06: Sterling’s Drop Paces Dollar Gains
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.13% to 1.1522 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar edged higher against most of the major currencies, and emerging market currencies are heavier. Sterling’s quarter percent drop makes it the weakest of the majors in slow turnover and it was sufficient to record a new...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Dog Days of August Begin
United States With most of the major central bank meetings and important economic data out of the way, the dog days of August are upon us. In terms of drivers, it means that players will have to look elsewhere for inspiration and it means that market liquidy is likely not at its best. That said, there are a few economic reports that will grab investors’ attention, even if briefly. Among them will be the US July CPI....
Read More »FX Daily, August 02: BOJ Surprises, BOE on Tap, Trade Worries Weigh on Stocks
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.14% to 1.1548 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The Bank of England meeting concludes a run of major central bank meetings over the past fortnight. The BOE is widely expected to join the Bank of Canada in raising rates. The Federal Reserve and the ECB were content to do and say...
Read More »FX Daily, July 31: BOJ Prepares for QE Infinity
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.15% to 1.1582 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The Japanese yen has been sold following the adjustments to policy and outlook by the BOJ that will allow the unconventional policies continue for an “extended period of time.” Cross rate pressure and month-end demand have lifted the...
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