Tag Archives: China

Overview: The Fed's hawkish hold and signal that it may raise rates two more time this year sent ripples through the capital markets. Risk appetites have been dealt a blow. However, China's rate cut and likely additional supportive measures after disappointing data, helped lift the CSI 300 by 1.6%, the most this year. The Hang Seng rose by nearly 2.2%, the most in three months. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day advance and US index futures are trading...

Overview: Today may be the calm ahead of a tomorrow's US CPI and rate decisions by the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC over the next few days. Most large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose and Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day decline. US index futures are trading higher. US 10-year yield is slightly firmer as are core European benchmark yields. The dollar is under broad pressure and is weaker against the G10 currencies. Against emerging market currencies, it...

Overview:  Long US dollar positions were pared yesterday as rates unwound the gains scored in the wake of the Bank of Canada's surprise hike on Wednesday. It is consolidating today as the market looks toward next week’s central bank meetings (FOMC, ECB, and BOJ) and a flurry of data. It is also possible that China shaves the benchmark one-year medium-term lending facility rate. Broadly speaking the greenback is still tracking rates, and the more than 4% initial drop...

Overview: The back-to-back surprise rate hikes by the Australia and Canada spurred speculation that the Fed could hike next week, and this lifted US rates and helped the dollar recover. The odds of a hike increased, according to the indicative pricing in the Fed funds futures market from about a 20% chance to a little above 35%. now. At yesterday's high, the two-year yield was up a little more than 25 bp since the low before the US employment data last Friday. It is...

Overview: The market was gearing up for a June Fed hike and officials and this helped lift the greenback. However, the Fed Governor Jefferson, nominated to be the next vice-chair, pushed back against it. His views are thought to reflect the Fed's leadership. Philadelphia Fed's Harker, who is a voting member of the FOMC also backed a pause. This is not quite what we expected when we suggested the US interest rate adjustment was complete or nearly so. Still, it broke...

Overview:  Federal Reserve Chair Powell's offered a stronger case for a pause in the monetary tightening before the weekend and this sapped the dollar's mojo. The greenback is mostly consolidating through the European morning in quiet turnover. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is trying to snap a four-day decline. The South African rand is recovering from its recent slide and is up nearly 1%. The South Korea won is benefitting from China's decision to...

Overview:  The US debt ceiling talks resume at the White House today but a deal is unlikely to be announced. President Biden will attend the G7 summit in Hiroshima with the debt ceiling still looming. The dollar is mostly softer as last week's gains are pared. The Swiss franc and Japanese are the strongest in the G10. The Thai baht and South African rand, among the market's favorites yesterday are seeing those gains retraced. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency...

Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating last week's gains. The big news has been on the political front. Thailand's opposition parties dealt the military-led government a powerful blow. But in Turkey, Erdogan staved off a serious challenge and a run-off later this month looks likely, while his party maintained its parliamentary majority. Tensions over arms shipments to Russia have eased between the US and South Africa, giving the rand a boost. The greenback's...

Overview: The US dollar has come back bid today. It is rising by 0.25%-0.50% against all the G10 currencies. The Canadian dollar is the most resilient today, which is often the case when the greenback is firm. The Australian dollar is off the most after reaching its strongest level since late February yesterday. Sterling is a middling performer today ahead of the anticipated Bank of England rate hike. The dollar is also firmer against most emerging market...

Overview: The market sentiment remains fragile. Equities are mostly lower. Japan was a notable exception, and concerns about China's economy after a sharp decline in imports took mainland and Hong Kong listed companies sharply lower. Europe's Stoxx 600 is giving back yesterday's 0.35% gain plus more. Bank shares are off 0.65% after rallying 4.20% over the past two sessions. US equity futures are heavier. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly a couple basis points...