Tag Archives: China

Overview: Beijing's seemingly steady stream of measures to support the economy and steady the yuan are beginning to produce the desired effect. The yuan is snapping a four-week decline and the CSI 300 halted a three-week drop. Some economists estimate that the bevy of measures may be worth as much as 1% for GDP. The dollar is narrowly mixed ahead of the US employment data, which is expected to see the pace of job growth slow to around 170k. Of note, the Mexican peso...

Overview: The deluge of Treasury supply is nearly over for this week. On tap today are 4- and 8-week T-bills and $23 bln 30-year bonds to finish the quarterly refunding. The sales will come after the July CPI print that is expected to see the first year-over-year increase since last June. The market is going into the report with about a 15% chance of a Fed hike next month discounted. Meanwhile, September crude oil extended its recover from $80 seen on Tuesday to a...

Overview: The first leg of the US refunding was well received, with the three-year note being scooped up by investors, driving the yield below it was trading in the when-issued market. Today, the Treasury sells $38 bln 10-year notes, whose auctions have been less than stellar recently. The US 10-year yield reached 4.20% last week and is now straddling 4%. Italian bonds are also firm as the Italian government clarifies the new tax on banks' windfall profits. Other...

Overview: The US dollar is recovering today after it was sold following the jobs report before the weekend. It is enjoying a firmer bias against nearly all the G10 currencies. The dollar-bloc is faring best, while the Scandis are off close to 0.5%. Most emerging market currencies are also softer, with only a few Asian currencies edging higher today, including the South Korean won, Indian rupee, and Taiwanese dollar. With a stronger dollar and firmer interest rates,...

Overview: The capital markets are calmer today but the US (and Canadian) jobs data stand in the way of the weekend. While equity markets are firmer, the rise in yields continues with new highs for the week being recorded today. European benchmark yields are 2-3 bp higher and the US 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.20%. Most of the large market in the Asia Pacific region advanced, but South Korea and Taiwan where the superconductor fascination eased. The Stoxx...

Overview: The global capital markets remain unsettled. The combination of the BOJ adjustment of its monetary policy, Fitch's downgrade of the US to AA+, ahead of a flood of supply, and new measures by China have injected volatility into the summer markets. The US dollar has extended it gains today against the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. The yen has recovered a bit after the BOJ stepped in and bought JGBs for the second time this week at...

Overview:  The US dollar has mostly steadied at the start of the week after last week's sharp losses. The yen, euro, and Swiss franc are enjoying a firmer tone, but only the euro has thus far extended last week's gains, and then, only marginally. Uninspiring data from China pressed the yuan lower, while the firm euro is helping the central European currencies. A typhoon shut Hong Kong markets and Japan's markets were closed for a national holiday. The Ukraine...

Overview: After tumbling headlong this week, the dollar appears to be broadly consolidating ahead of the weekend Among the G10 currencies, the Canadian dollar's 1.2% gain is the least and it made new 10-month highs earlier today The beleaguered Scandis soared The Norwegian krone's 6.6% advance followed by the Swedish krona's 5.8% surge led the major currencies The Dollar Index is off about 2.4% this week ahead of the North American session It is the largest loss...

Overview: The US dollar's losses have been extended ahead of the June CPI. At the same time, speculation that the Bank of Japan will adjust policy later this month saw the yen extend its gains for the fifth consecutive session. Sterling made new highs since last April, while the Swiss franc has risen to its best levels in about 2 1/2 years. The Dollar Index gapped lower and through the trendline drawn off the April and May lows. The greenback has steadied a little...

Overview: The market continues to resist the Fed's signal that another 50 bp of hikes may be necessary to ensure inflation is headed toward its target. Previously, the market had rate cuts priced in, and it took some time for the Fed's push back to be accepted. The market converged with the Fed, and this helped the dollar recover. We suspect a similar pattern to play out again. The market does not have even one of the two Fed hikes discounted. As it moves in this...