Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.11% to 1.164 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates We suggested the market was at crossroads. It is still not clear if the dollar’s breakout, supported by higher yields is real or simply the fraying of ranges. Asia has pushed the dollar broadly lower. While the greenback finished the North...
Read More »FX Daily, October 31: Month-End Leaves Market at Crossroads
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.41% to 1.628 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Global equity markets are closing another strong month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed on the day, but up 4.3% in October, the 10th consecutive monthly advance. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is also flattish today, but up 1.6%...
Read More »FX Daily, October 25: Sterling and Aussie Interrupt the Waiting Game
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.32% to 1.1689 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Most participants seemed comfortable marking time ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, and an announcement President Trump’s nominations to the Federal Reserve. However, softer than expected Australian Q3 CPI and a stronger than expected UK Q3...
Read More »Canada: Monetary and Fiscal Updates This Week
Summary: Divergence between US and Canada’s two-year rates is key for USD-CAD exchange rate. Canada’s 2 hikes in Q3 were not part of a sustained tightening sequence. Policy mix considerations also favor the greenback if US policy becomes more stimulative. Many observers saw Canada as one of the canaries in the coal mine, warning that the divergence theme was over. The Bank of Canada did hike rates twice in...
Read More »FX Daily, October 23: US Dollar Starts New Week on Firm Note
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.04% to 1.1578 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is enjoying modest gains against most currencies as prospects of both tax reform and additional monetary tightening by the Fed carry over from last week. The strong showing of the Liberal Democrats in Japan, where the...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Three on a Match: US Tax Reform, ECB and Bank of Canada Meetings
Summary: Busy week of economic data and central bank meetings, and reaction to Spanish developments and Japan and Czech elections. Focus below is on the Bank of Canada and ECB meetings and tax reform in the US. The biggest challenge to tax reform is unlikely on the committee level but on the floor votes, especially in the Senate, in a similar way the stymied health care reform. US and German 2-year rates are...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Three on a Match: US Tax Reform, ECB and Bank of Canada Meetings
Summary: Busy week of economic data and central bank meetings, and reaction to Spanish developments and Japan and Czech elections. Focus below is on the Bank of Canada and ECB meetings and tax reform in the US. The biggest challenge to tax reform is unlikely on the committee level but on the floor votes, especially in the Senate, in a similar way the stymied health care reform. US and German 2-year rates are...
Read More »FX Daily, October 20:Tax Prospects Lift Rates and Dollar Ahead of Weekend
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.19% to 1.1589 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US Senate approved a budget resolution that is a necessary step toward using a parliamentary maneuver that prevents the Democrats to block tax reform by filibuster. This has helped spur dollar gains against all the major currencies...
Read More »NAFTA Worries Take Toll, Yellen’s Best Guess Supports Greenback
Summary: Risk that NAFTA collapses weighs on CAD and MXN. Yen is slightly firmer despite US yields edging higher and weekend polls suggesting LDP could nearly secure a 2/3 majority of its own. The sterling is consolidating after sharp moves at the end of last week. (Greetings from San Francisco, where I will be speaking at a CFA seminar on currencies tomorrow. The rebuilding from destruction of the of...
Read More »FX Daily, October 6: Look Through the US Jobs Report
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.27% to 1.1485 CHF. EUR-CHF and USD-CHF, October 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Traders are putting the final touches on another strong weekly performance for the US dollar. Strong economic data, including the PMIs, auto sales, and factory orders have surprised to the market. The ADP report warns that the storms that...
Read More »