Overview: Rising energy prices and yields are helping lift the US dollar and weighing on equities. November WTI has pushed above $76, while Brent traded above $80, and natural gas is up for the fourth consecutive session, during which time it has risen by about 25%. The US 10-year yield has surged to almost 1.53%, up more than 20 bp since the middle of last week. Near 32 bp, the US 2-year yield is at a new 18-month high. European yields are 3-5 bp higher, with...
Read More »Ever Grand
Overview: Coming into yesterday's session, the S&P 500 had fallen in eight of the past ten sessions. It closed on its lows before the weekend and gapped. Nearly the stories in the press blamed China and the likely failure of one of its largest property developers, Evergrande. Those that are prone to the sky-is-falling narratives refer to it as Lehman moment. The S&P 's 2.7% decline yesterday was the largest in half of a year, and the VIX jumped to...
Read More »Ever Grand
Overview: Coming into yesterday's session, the S&P 500 had fallen in eight of the past ten sessions. It closed on its lows before the weekend and gapped. Nearly the stories in the press blamed China and the likely failure of one of its largest property developers, Evergrande. Those that are prone to the sky-is-falling narratives refer to it as Lehman moment. The S&P 's 2.7% decline yesterday was the largest in half of a year, and the VIX jumped to...
Read More »Risk Appetites Didn’t Return from the Weekend
Overview: Investors’ mood did not improve over the weekend, and the lack of risk appetites are rippling through the capital markets today. Equities have tumbled, yields have backed off, and the dollar is well bid. Hong Kong and Australia led the sell-off in the Asia Pacific region, off 3.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Regional losses may have been larger, but Japan, Chinese (mainland), and South Korea markets were on holiday. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 2%, the...
Read More »Risk Appetites Didn’t Return from the Weekend
Overview: Investors’ mood did not improve over the weekend, and the lack of risk appetites are rippling through the capital markets today. Equities have tumbled, yields have backed off, and the dollar is well bid. Hong Kong and Australia led the sell-off in the Asia Pacific region, off 3.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Regional losses may have been larger, but Japan, Chinese (mainland), and South Korea markets were on holiday. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 2%, the...
Read More »Is it Really all about US CPI?
Overview: The markets are in a wait-and-see mode, it appears, ahead of the US CPI figures, as it absorbs bond supply from Europe and monitors the potential restructuring of China’s Evergrande. A new storm may hit US oil and gas in the Gulf before recovering from the past storm and helping to underpin prices. China and Hong Kong led the decliners in the mixed Asia Pacific session that saw the Nikkei post its highest close since 1990. South Korea, Taiwan, and Indian...
Read More »FX Daily, August 17: Antipodeans and Sterling Bear Brunt of Greenback’s Gains
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.20% to 1.072 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Concern about the economic impact of the virus and new efforts by China to curb “unfair” competition among online companies has triggered a dramatic response by investors. A lockdown in New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of Australia signaling it will respond if the economic fallout...
Read More »Gold’s Flash Crash and Limited Follow-Through Greenback Gains
Overview: A flash crash saw gold drop more than $70 an ounce in early Asia. Silver was dragged lower too. The precious metals have stabilized at lower levels, but it signals a rough adjustment to a higher interest rate environment as a hawkish BOE and strong US employment data suggest peak monetary stimulus is at hand. The dollar is broadly mostly firmer against the major and emerging market currencies. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is lower for...
Read More »FX Daily, July 15: Strong Gains in US CPI and PPI Don’t Stop the Bond Market Rally
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0837 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Strong inflation prints this week have not prevented the long-term US interest rates from tumbling. The 10-year yield is about 10 bp lower than where it closed on Tuesday after the lackluster 30-year auction. The 30-year yield itself is 11 bp lower. Fed Chair Powell did not break new...
Read More »FX Daily, June 30: The Greenback is Firm into Quarter-End
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.0959 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The dollar is finishing the quarter on firm footing, gaining against most of the major currencies today. The euro is straddling the $1.1900 area, having begun the month above $1.22. Sterling has tested the $1.38 area. It had traded at a three-year high near $1.4250 at the start of the...
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