Short Note on US Employment Report

Summary:
The US jobs data is notoriously difficult to accurately forecast consistently. I do not claim to do so now. My intent is more modest. It is simply to point out why I there is risk that the jobs data is disappointing, especially after the stronger than expected ADP estimate. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, March 2017(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, ) Source: investing.com - Click to enlarge The same forces that weighed on March auto sales may have slowed net job growth; namely the weather and reversion to mean. The US non-farm payrolls rose more in January and February than in Q4 16 (473k to 443k). Better weather may have inflated February’s results, and March’s storm warns of payback. U.S. Unemployment Rate, March 2017(see more posts on U.S. Unemployment Rate, ) Source: investing.com - Click to enlarge This is not a mono-causal argument. Weekly initial jobless claims also moved higher. The PMIs and I‎SMs showed softness in labor indicators. ADP stands as an exception, and it’s curve fitting tendency may be picking up the echo of past job strength, and underestimating the impact of weather. There is also risk that this spills over and impacts hours worked. A 0.3% rise in hourly earnings is necessary to keep the year-over-year rate steady at 2.8%, which is anticipated. U.S.

Topics:
Marc Chandler considers the following as important: Featured, FX Trends, Labor market, newslettersent, U.S. Average Earnings, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, U.S. participation rate, U.S. unemployment rate, USD

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