Wednesday , April 26 2017
Home / Perspectives Pictet / U.S. job creation slows but unemployment drops to a new record low

U.S. job creation slows but unemployment drops to a new record low

Summary:
Job growth was strong in the first quarter as a whole, however, and latest numbers may not lead Fed to change its overall assessment of the economic outlook.Non-farm payrolls increased by 98,000 m-o-m in March, well below consensus expectations (180,000). Adverse weather conditions likely weighed on the aggregate numbers. Moreover, job creation averaged 177,000 in Q1 2017, above the Q4 average of 147,000.Importantly, the US unemployment rate fell to a new cycle low of 4.5% in March, from 4.7% in February. The U6 measure of underemployment dropped to 8.9%, from 9.2%. Wage growth was in line with expectations, up 0.2% m-o-m and 2.7% y-o-y in March.Overall, we suspect that today’s jobs report will not lead to a material reassessment of the economic outlook by the Fed. Barring a sharper

Topics:
Frederik Ducrozet and Nadia Gharbi considers the following as important: , ,

This could be interesting, too:

Dong Chen writes China GDP beats expectations, but no change in core scenario

Frederik Ducrozet and Nadia Gharbi writes Bank lending gives no ground for ECB to change stance

Christophe Donay writes Macron victory still raises questions for markets

Nadia Gharbi writes Latest PMI numbers tilt growth forecast upwards

Job growth was strong in the first quarter as a whole, however, and latest numbers may not lead Fed to change its overall assessment of the economic outlook.

Non-farm payrolls increased by 98,000 m-o-m in March, well below consensus expectations (180,000). Adverse weather conditions likely weighed on the aggregate numbers. Moreover, job creation averaged 177,000 in Q1 2017, above the Q4 average of 147,000.

U.S. job creation slows but unemployment drops to a new record low

Importantly, the US unemployment rate fell to a new cycle low of 4.5% in March, from 4.7% in February. The U6 measure of underemployment dropped to 8.9%, from 9.2%. Wage growth was in line with expectations, up 0.2% m-o-m and 2.7% y-o-y in March.

Overall, we suspect that today’s jobs report will not lead to a material reassessment of the economic outlook by the Fed. Barring a sharper slowdown in job creation or the economy, the main driver for monetary policy in the next few months is likely to be the prospects of fiscal stimulus, or lack thereof.

0 0

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *