Tag Archives: us job creation

Latest data indicates the US business cycle is in good shape and sets the stage for rate hike next month.US employment grew by 250,000 in October (+1.7% y-o-y); the 3-month average is now a solid 218,000/month, and strong October payroll results were strong, which bodes well for US GDP growth in Q4. It appears therefore that the US’ heated rhetoric towards China is having little effect so far on the US economy.The mere fact that the US economy continues to generate such job growth is an...

Investment and consumption remain the twin engines of US growth.The first estimate for Q3 GDP (3.5% quarter-on-quarter annualised) confirmed that the US business cycle remains solid. Whereas consumption was stronger than in previous quarters, investment was softer than in Q3—but the underlying story is that solid investment continues to support US growth.This data confirms our annual GDP forecast of 3.0%. This remains above the post-financial crisis average growth rate of 2.3%, and above the...

No sign of a let-up in the US business cycle as job openings continue to rise.We particularly like job openings data as an indicator for a turning point in the US macroeconomic cycle, even though this series has not much history (data start in December 2000), and in spite of its long lag to release (we just had data for August, i.e. it is more than two months old now).Still, job openings did a rather good job of indicating an inflexion point right before the global financial crisis: the US...

Growth in US jobs marches on: openings now exceed the numbers of unemployed.The US job market is going from strength to strength. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in May, the lowest since April 2000. And another milestone has been reached as the number of job openings rose to 6.70 million in April, exceeding the number of unemployed people (6.1 million in May, 6.3 million in April)Job openings remain a good leading indicator for future US employment growth, and the ongoing momentum in...

Job growth was strong in the first quarter as a whole, however, and latest numbers may not lead Fed to change its overall assessment of the economic outlook.Non-farm payrolls increased by 98,000 m-o-m in March, well below consensus expectations (180,000). Adverse weather conditions likely weighed on the aggregate numbers. Moreover, job creation averaged 177,000 in Q1 2017, above the Q4 average of 147,000.Importantly, the US unemployment rate fell to a new cycle low of 4.5% in March, from...