SNB & CHF

An ill-conceived strategy undermined by mismanagement and bad fortune is increasing the risks that the UK votes to leave the EU in June.    Nearly everything that could, has gone wrong for UK Prime Minister Cameron. While many investors have anticipated the UK would remain in the EU, the increased risks will likely weigh on sterling, with potential for sharp losses.  Sterling is already the worst performer among the majors here in Q1.  It is from 3.3% which is more than twice the loss of...

Until last September, the Federal Reserve seems to play down the market-based measures of inflation expectations, preferring the surveys that showed views were anchored.    At the September 2015 FOMC meeting where the Fed had been expected to tighten until the August turmoil, officials cited among other considerations, the decline in market-based measures of inflation expectations.   There are many problems with using the spread between conventional Treasuries and the inflation-linked...

A series of attacks at Brussels airport and metro casts a pall over the market.  The attacks come as Europe prepares what for many will be a long holiday weekend.  Gold, the dollar and yen seem to have been the beneficiaries.   Bonds are generally firmer and equities lower.   However, in late morning activity in London, the markets began stabilizing.  Sterling remains the weakest of the major currencies.  It is nearly as much as it was yesterday (0.7%) against the dollar.  Osborne has...

22.03.2016 09:15  - FSO, Economic Surveys (0353-1601-50) Labour costs 2014 Labour costs in Switzerland: marked differences according to enterprise size Neuchâtel, 22.03.2016 (FSO) – In 2014, average labour costs in Switzerland amounted to CHF 59.60 per hour worked across the secondary and tertiary sectors. According to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), costs vary considerably from one sector to another and are influenced by enterprise size. Download this press release (pdf, 129 KB)...

22.03.2016 09:15  – FSO, Health (0353-1603-60) Assisted reproductive technology in 2014: definitive data Uptake of in-vitro fertilisation on the rise again Neuchâtel, 22.03.2016 (FSO) – In 2014, 6269 couples wishing to have children turned to in-vitro fertilisation. This resulted in the birth of 1955 live children. These figures are slightly higher than those for 2013 but remain lower than those observed between 2009 and 2012. These are some of the latest results of the assisted...

Es war einmal ein Bauer. Willy hiess er. Er hatte einen Hof, 65 Kühe, seine Frau Vreneli, einen anständigen und allseits respektierten Fuhrpark, war glücklich, zufrieden und wohlhabend. Dann kam die Wende auf dem Milchmarkt: Milch kam ausser Mode. Er wusste nicht wie weiter und suchte Rat bei seinem Knecht Christian. Christian empfahl im Rahmen des Fitnessprogramms “Farm95” einen Teil der Kühe zu verkaufen. Es blieben noch 42. Der Milchertrag war noch gut. Nach der Jahrtausendwende kam...

Early on Monday morning (Arizona time), silver began to rise. From its close on Friday of $15.46, it ran up to $15.82. Then it began to slide, eventually dropping to $15.17 by midmorning on Wednesday. Then… *BAM* The Fed said not a lot. It will go on manipulating the rate of interest rate to the same level as it had been previously. This was not what the market was expecting, as many believed the Fed was on the war rate-hiking path. Lower interest means more quantity of money dollars which...

EM ended the week on a mixed note after posting strong post-FOMC gains. The bounce in risk seems likely to continue this week, with little on the horizon to derail it. Specific country risk remains in play, however, with heightened political concerns in Brazil and South Africa. Taiwan reports February export orders Monday, which are expected at -10% y/y vs. -12.4% in January. It reports February IP Wednesday, which is expected at -5.45% y/y vs. -5.65% in January. The central bank then...

The year started off poorly, to say the least. Equity markets plunged from the get-go.  The Nikkei, DAX and S&P 500 gapped lower on the first trading day of the year.   Emerging markets and commodities were smashed.   Many economists blamed the Federal Reserve for hiking rates in mid-December.   Pundits warned that the seven-year bull market and weak economic recovery in the US was ending.  A recession loomed, and worse because monetary policy had lost its effectiveness and fiscal...

After a relatively quiet period into the run-up to the ECB, speculative activity markedly increased in the CFTC reporting week ending the day prior to the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Two speculative gross currency position adjustments stand out.  First, speculators appeared to have bought a record amount of sterling contracts.  The gross long position more than doubled; increasing 33.5k contracts to 62.9k.   Despite the continued recovery of sterling in the spot market, the bears...