SNB & CHF

07.07.2016 09:15  – FSO, Prices (0353-1606-90) Swiss Consumer Price Index in June 2016 Consumer prices increase by 0.1% Neuchâtel, 07.07.2016 (FSO) – The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% in June 2016 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.7 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was -0.4% in comparison with the same month in the previous year. These are the findings of the Federal Statistical...

Summary Don’t be fooled, the yuan has fallen more against its basket that against the dollar this year. It is not clear what China means by stable. Market forces appear to be moving in the same direction as officials wish. Here are two Great Graphics that portray two time series: the dollar-yuan exchange rate and the yuan against a trade-weighted basket.  The first chart comes from a highly reputable...

Forex has been the big banks secret gold mine, supporting their other losing operations (like normal banking business, lending, etc.).  To a large extent this has been unraveling, and this SIBOR lawsuit is another attack on their risk free profit center (FX).  Read the entire lawsuit released by Elite E Services here in full.  More than 50 unknown defendants and about 20 known FX banks are named in the case, submitted...

Investec Switzerland. Swiss stocks, dislodged in 2015 as a haven from European volatility, have seen the status restored following Brexit — so much that some investors are balking at valuations. After trailing shares from Germany to France and Italy for most the past year, the Swiss Market Index is finding a new appeal in the fallout of the U.K. vote to leave the European Union. Investors buying up...

Swiss Franc Once again the SNB was heavily intervening and the pound fell against both euro and CHF.Thanks to SNB interventions, the Euro did not even dip under 1.08. Click to enlarge. Brexit What a difference a few days make.  Many saw last week’s equity market advance a sign that Brexit anxiety was overdone. However, quarter-end position adjustments appear to have been misread.  Equity markets are falling now....

Summary The IMF identified three banks that posted the most significant systemic risks. It has been overshadowed by new pressure on Italy’s banks, and. Three UK commercial real estate funds have been frozen to prevent redemptions. The conventional narrative has it backward. It worries about the threats to stability emanating from the periphery in Europe.  Policymakers, investors, and economists still refer to...

Following James Traub’s mind-numbingly-elitist rebuttal of the democratic rights of “we, the people” in favor of allowing “they, the elite” to ensure the average joe doesn’t run with scissors, “It’s time for the elites to rise up against the ignorant masses.” The Brexit has laid bare the political schism of our time. It’s not about the left vs. the right; it’s about the sane vs. the mindlessly angry… The Guardian’s...

  Swiss Franc and SNB interventions It was another day of heavy SNB interventions. The central bank kept the euro nearly stable. As we explained before, she recycled sterling inflows in CHF into euros. Based on the magnitude of the GBP decline against EUR (see below), we estimate 2 to 4 bn CHF interventions. Click to enlarge.   Brexit The British pound has been hammered to fresh lows just above $1.3115. The euro is...

  Low Interest Rate Persons She is a low-interest-rate person. She has always been a low-interest-rate person. And I must be honest. I am a low-interest-rate person. If we raise interest rates, and if the dollar starts getting too strong, we’re going to have some very major problems. — Donald Trump BALTIMORE – With startling clarity, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee described himself – and Fed chief...

  Net Lines It’s that dreaded day after Independence Day. The weather is gorgeous and I don’t really feel like trading either. The thought of just phoning it in had occurred to me, but as the new month just rolled over I thought I may as well take another peek at our monthly charts. Which uncovered quite some interesting perspectives that I’m eager to share. But no worries – we’re keeping it light and easy...