SNB & CHF

Stock Markets EM FX ended the week on a firm note, helped by softer than expected US data.  Indeed, EM FX was up across the board for the entire week and was led by BRL, MXN, and ZAR. The ECB meeting this week will draw some interest, especially after the BOC last week became the second major central bank to hike rates. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, July 05 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Hungary...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary: Market has downgraded chances of a September hike from low to lower, but the chances of a December hike are higher than the day after the June hike. ECB meeting is the most important event of the week. A small change in the risk assessment is likely. The US and Europe have been more disruptive to the global capital markets this year than China. The focus shifts in the week ahead from Yellen’s...

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR The Euro remained the strongest among EUR, CHF and USD during the last month. The Swiss lost against EUR 1.5%, while it gained versus the dollar 0.75%. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency...

Bitcoin and other cryptos have fallen sharply over the past month in a shakeout that saw some of the early longs decide to take their winnings and walk away. But a 20% drop from the all-time highs hasn’t done much to temper wealthy investors interest in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as alternative investments potentially worthy of diversification. And with the Greyscale Bitcoin Investment Trust still trading at a...

 La vache, source de pollution à cause du méthane contenu dans ses pets! En revanche, les blocs de béton construits sur  les près,dans lesquels elles broutaient, ne polluent pas… Une offense à notre intelligence… L’Espagne, potager de l’Europe! Le slogan est joli, mais il y a plusieurs mais! - Click to enlarge Il faut savoir que les industriels de l’agriculture exploitent ce pays de toutes les manières possibles...

Miners at the south portal of the Bözberg Tunnel, canton Aargau, in January. The tunnel is part of the strategy of shifting cargo from road to rail between Basel and Chiasso via the new Gotthard Base Tunnel - Click to enlarge The Swiss are not only the European champions in travelling by train, but they also invest the most in their country’s rail network. Last year, €378 (CHF416) per inhabitant was spent on rail...

 In the same way as durable goods orders and US imports, wholesale sales in May 2017 were up somewhat unadjusted but down for the third straight month according the seasonally-adjusted series. As with those other two, the difference is one of timing. In other words, combining the two sets, seasonal and not, we are left to interpret a possible recent slowing in activity. There are gains year-over-year to be sure, but it...

To the naked eye, it represents progress. China has still an enormous rural population doing subsistence level farming. As the nation grows economically, such a way of life is an inherent drag, an anchor on aggregate efficiency Chinese officials would rather not put up with. Moving a quarter of a billion people into cities in an historically condensed time period calls for radical thinking, and radical doing. In one...

Summary Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif may face trial on corruption charges. Turkey will reportedly pay $2.5 bln for a Russian missile defense system. Nigeria said it was willing to cap its oil production to support OPEC efforts to cut global supply. Former Brazilian President Lula was sentenced to nine and half years in prison on corruption charges. S&P downgraded Chile one notch to A+ with a stable...