SNB & CHF

“Fed is tightening into weakness and will eventually over-tighten and cause a recession” “More inflation and a weaker dollar” is “the perfect environment for gold” Geopolitical shocks will return when least expected and gold will soar in flight to safety The Fed raised rates yesterday, as I predicted months ago. I don’t say this to pat myself on the back. The point is, I use a rigorous scientific method to analyze and...

With the faltering in euro area business sentiment since February, the Italy-led sell-off of risk assets at the end of May and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish meeting in June, we are revising our year-end forecast for the German 10-year Bund yield from 0.9% to 0.6%, as we hinted we might do in a previous note. Euro area business cycle slowdown After a very strong end to 2017, euro area economic growth has...

Switzerland was the most expensive in Europe for food and non-alcoholic drinks in 2017 (+68% more than the EU average) (Keystone) Switzerland has been ranked the second-most expensive European country behind Iceland for consumer goods, which are 59% higher than the European Union average. Food and non-alcoholic drinks are particularly pricey. For the third year in a row, Switzerland was the most expensive in Europe for...

Is the rate hiking cycle almost done? Not the question on everyone’s minds right now so a good time to ask it, I think. A couple of items caught my attention recently that made me at least think about the possibility.  There has been for some time now a large short position held by speculators in the futures market for Treasuries. Speculators have been making large and consistent bets that Treasury prices would fall....

I will begin my remarks with an overview of the situation on the financial markets, before giving an update on the status of the reforms regarding reference interest rates. And in closing I would like to say a few words about our branch office in Singapore, which is celebrating its fifth anniversary. Situation on the financial markets Let me start with the developments on the financial markets. The first half of 2018...

Fritz Zurbrugg - Click to enlarge In my remarks today, I will present the key findings from this year’s Financial Stability Report, published by the Swiss National Bank this morning. In the first part of my speech, I will talk about the big banks, before going on, in the second part, to outline our current assessment of the situation at domestically focused banks. Big banks In October 2018, it will be ten years since...

- Click to enlarge Ladies and gentlemen It is a pleasure for me to welcome you to the Swiss National Bank’s news conference. I will begin by explaining our monetary policy decision and our assessment of the economic situation. I would also like to briefly touch on the rejection of the sovereign money initiative by the people and the cantons as well as a publication marking the tenth anniversary of the SNB’s...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.27% to 1.1492 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates There are large options that expire today at $1.1525 (1.2 bln euros) and $1.1550 (1.9 bln). Given the still substantial gross long euro positions in the futures market, it remains an open question of what level would trigger a capitulation. A...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

The number of people who applied for a Swiss driving licence dropped by 2% last year, with applications from 18- to 24-year-olds down 3%. Some 5.8 million people owned a driving licence for cars in 2017, the Federal Roads Officeexternal link said on Tuesday. This 1% increase was due not only to new drivers but also to foreign licences being exchanged for Swiss ones and natural population growth, it explained. + Why...