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Let’s Be Realistic

[The Lecturer’s Art: Gems of American History by Walter A. McDougall. Encounter Books, 2025. xxii + 291 pp.]The historian Walter McDougall is not a libertarian, but he criticizes the Progressives and Woodrow Wilson in a similar way to Murray Rothbard. He does so from the perspective of “realism.” Although people benefit from cooperation, realists maintain, their desires for wealth and power often lead them to act in ways that violate morality and go against their...

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CAPE-5: A Different Measure Of Valuation

One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller's Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price Is What You Pay. Value Is What You Get.” One of the hallmarks of very late-stage bull market cycles is the inevitable bashing of long-term valuation metrics. In the late 90s, if you were buying...

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CAPE-5: A Different Measure Of Valuation

One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller's Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price Is What You Pay. Value Is What You Get.” One of the hallmarks of very late-stage bull market cycles is the inevitable bashing of long-term valuation metrics. In the late 90s, if you were buying...

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Retail Investors Are Suddenly Bearish

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment indicator claims that 60.6% of the retail investors are bearish. The percentage of bears in its survey increased sharply from 40.5% at the prior reading on February 19. The AAII retail investor survey is now the most bearish it has been since September 2022. More stunning, this is only the sixth time since 1987 that bearish sentiment has been above 60%. Furthermore, the five-week change in the index...

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Retail Investors Are Suddenly Bearish

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment indicator claims that 60.6% of the retail investors are bearish. The percentage of bears in its survey increased sharply from 40.5% at the prior reading on February 19. The AAII retail investor survey is now the most bearish it has been since September 2022. More stunning, this is only the sixth time since 1987 that bearish sentiment has been above 60%. Furthermore, the five-week change in the index...

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Bank Avera lässt Federn

Die Bank Avera hat 2024 in allen Geschäftsbereichen eine gute operative Leistung gezeigt. Ausfallrisikobedingte Wertberichtigungen und ein ausserordentlicher Gewinn im Vorjahr sorgen aber bei Ertrag und Gewinn für negative Vorzeichen.

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