Overview: Yesterday’s late rally in US shares carried into the Asia Pacific session where all of the large markets advanced. However, the bears are not abdicating and Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off for the sixth consecutive session and US futures are trading lower. The sell-off in the bond market continues. European benchmark yields are mostly 8-10 bp higher and the US 10-year Treasury yield is up nearly five basis points to approach 3.54%. The two-year continues to...
Read More »Risk Appetites Didn’t Return from the Weekend
Overview: Investors’ mood did not improve over the weekend, and the lack of risk appetites are rippling through the capital markets today. Equities have tumbled, yields have backed off, and the dollar is well bid. Hong Kong and Australia led the sell-off in the Asia Pacific region, off 3.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Regional losses may have been larger, but Japan, Chinese (mainland), and South Korea markets were on holiday. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 2%, the...
Read More »Risk Appetites Didn’t Return from the Weekend
Overview: Investors’ mood did not improve over the weekend, and the lack of risk appetites are rippling through the capital markets today. Equities have tumbled, yields have backed off, and the dollar is well bid. Hong Kong and Australia led the sell-off in the Asia Pacific region, off 3.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Regional losses may have been larger, but Japan, Chinese (mainland), and South Korea markets were on holiday. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 2%, the...
Read More »World Bank Staff Boosted China and Saudi Arabia Rankings
The FT (and many other outlets) summarize a report by law firm WilmerHale which was commissioned by the World Bank: … in the 2018 edition of Doing Business, China’s overall ranking had been artificially held at 78 — the same as in the previous year — as a result of late changes that elevated its position from 85. The report alleges that Georgieva led efforts to improve China’s ranking at a time when she was “engrossed” in a campaign to secure a capital increase for the World Bank. …...
Read More »This Thing Is Only Getting Started; Or, *All* The V’s Are Light On The Right
The Federal Reserve’s models really are the most optimistic of the bunch. With the policy meeting conducted today, no surprises as far as policies go, we now know what ferbus has to say about everything that’s happened this year. Skipping the usual March projections, what with the FOMC totally occupied at the time by a complete global monetary meltdown Jay Powell now says “we saw it coming”, the central bank staff released the calculations performed by its DSGE...
Read More »What to Expect from the World Bank and IMF
The spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF will be held virtually this week amid a profound economic crisis spurred by a novel coronavirus. Unlike previous such viruses, this went global in such a destructive way that many countries have responded the same way. Encouraging social distancing, closing non-essential businesses, and enforcing lockdowns. The economic contraction that has begun is beyond what has been seen since the Great Depression. Even before the...
Read More »Doing Business, and Politics
The World Bank’s Doing Business project claims to provide objective measures of business regulations and their enforcement across 190 economies and selected cities at the subnational and regional level. In the Wall Street Journal, Josh Zumbrun and Ian Talley report that the ranking must be revised. Over time, World Bank staff put a heavy thumb on the scales of its report by repeatedly changing the methodology that was used to calculate the country rankings, Mr. Romer said. The focus of...
Read More »Top Institutions and Economists Now Say Globalization Increases Inequality
We’ve all heard that globalization lifts all boats and increases our prosperity … But mainstream economists and organizations are now starting to say that globalization increases inequality. The National Bureau of Economic Research – the largest economics research organization in the United States, with many Nobel economists and Chairmen of the Council of Economic Advisers as members – published, a report in May finding: Recent globalization...
Read More »The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis
Accounts of the financial crisis leave out the story of the secretive deals between banks that kept the show on the road. How long can the system be propped up for? - Click to enlarge It is a decade since the first tremors of what would become the Great Financial Crisis began to convulse global markets. Across the world from China and South Korea, to Ukraine, Greece, Brexit Britain and Trump’s America it has shaken...
Read More »These Are The 3 Main Issues For Europe In 2017
Submitted by George Friedman and Jacob Shapiro via MauldinEconomics.com, What will the year ahead look like for Europe? 2017 will be another chapter in the European Union’s slow unraveling… a process that has been underway for over a decade. The EU is a union in name only. The transfer of sovereignty to Brussels was never total, and member states are independent countries… each with their own interests at stake....
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