Inflation always brings out an emotional response. Far be it for me to defend Economists, but their concept is at least valid – if not always executed convincingly insofar as being measurable. An inflation index can be as meaningful as averaging the telephone numbers in a phone book (for anyone who remembers what those things were). If you spend $1,000 a month on food for your family, and food prices rise 6% generally...
Read More »Good or Bad, But Surely Not Transitory
When Federal Reserve officials first started last year to mention wireless network data plans as a possible explanation for a fifth year of “transitory” factors holding back consumer price inflation, it seemed a bit transparent. One of the reasons for immediately doubting their sincerity was the history of that particular piece of the CPI (or PCE Deflator). To begin with, the unlimited data plan wars that kicked off...
Read More »Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Fed, BOJ, BOE, SNB, US Inflation And Retail Sales
After a tumultous week in the world of politics, with non-stop Trump drama in the US, a disastrous for Theresa May general election in the UK, and pro-establishment results in France and Italy, this is shaping up as another busy week ahead with multiple CB meetings, a full data calendar and even another important Eurogroup meeting for Greece. Wednesday’s FOMC will be the main event, with the Fed expected to hike 25bp...
Read More »Frontrunning: May 31
Major Bourses on Course to End Month Sharply Higher (WSJ) Brent crude lower on strong Middle East oil output (Reuters) Treasuries Lose Their Lead Over Shares as Fed Moves Toward Shift (BBG) Lost Decade for Value Stocks Tests Faithful Who Say End is Nigh (BBG) Iraqi army pause at southern edge of Falluja as IS fights back (Reuters) Risky Reprise of Debt Binge Stars U.S. Companies Not Consumers (BBG) The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s 41-Year U.S. Debt Secret (BBG) Nuns With Guns: The...
Read More »Futures Flat, Gold Rises On Weaker Dollar As Traders Focus On OPEC, Payrolls
After yesterday's US and UK market holidays which resulted in a session of unchanged global stocks, US futures are largely where they left off Friday, up fractionally, and just under 2,100. Bonds fell as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates amid signs inflation is picking up. Oil headed for its longest run of monthly gains in five years, while stocks declined in Europe. Treasuries retreated in the first full day of trading since Yellen said late Friday that the improving...
Read More »Inside The Most Important Building For U.S. Capital Markets, Where Trillions Trade Each Day
Ask people which is the most important structure that keeps the US capital markets humming day after day, and most will likely erroneously say the New York Stock Exchange, which however over the past decade has transformed from its historic role into nothing more than a TV studio for financial cable networks. Some might be closer to the truth and say that the most important building is the true New York Stock Exchange located in Mahwah, New Jersey however that also is not true as the NYSE...
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