Two main developments drove the foreign exchange market in October. First, the market grew more confident that a hard Brexit could be avoided. This drove sterling sharply higher. It rallied from $1.22 on October 10 to a little above $1.30 on October 21 before doubts grew about the likelihood that Parliament will approve the new agreement. The other development was a heavier US dollar after strong gains over the past three months. The prospect that the US-China tariff...
Read More »FX Daily, November 4: Investor Optimism Carries into the New Week
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.16% to 1.1015 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 4(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Investor optimism is reflected by the risk-taking appetite that is lifting equity markets and bond yields. With Japanese markets closed for a national holiday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was led higher by more than 1% gains in Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. The...
Read More »FX Daily, November 1: Dollar Remains on the Defensive Ahead of Jobs Report
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.24% to 1.1023 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 1(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: An unexpected increase in China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI helped lift Asia Pacific equities after the S&P 500 stumbled yesterday amid concerns that there will not be a phase 2 in US-China trade negotiations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 4.3% in October, and with the help of...
Read More »FX Daily, October 31: No Good Deed Goes Unpunished
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.32% to 1.0993 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The equity and bond rally in North America yesterday carried over into today’s session. With some notable exceptions, like China, Taiwan, Australia, and Indonesia, most bourses in Asia Pacific and Europe traded higher. US shares are little changed in early Europe after the S&P...
Read More »FX Daily, October 30: All About Perspective
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.13% to 1.1026 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets are mostly treading water ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Asia Pacific and European equities drifted lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index appears to have snapped a four-day advance, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was trading slightly lower for the second...
Read More »FX Daily, October 29: Calm before the Storm
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.104 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The more prominent events this week still lie ahead, and the capital markets are trading accordingly. The rally that lifted the S&P 500 to new record highs yesterday carried over into Asia, where most equity markets rose, though China, Hong Kong, and South Korea were notable...
Read More »Cool Video: Dollar and Fed
I joined Tom Keene and Marty Schenker (chief content officer) on the set of Bloomberg TV this morning. Schenker discussed some of the geopolitical issues in the Middle East, and Keene asked about the impact on the dollar. I expressed my concern that the chief threat to the dollar’s role in the world economy is the several administrations have increasing weaponized access to the dollar and the dollar funding market. It used to be a public good, a utility if you will....
Read More »FX Daily, October 28: Politics Dominates Start of the Week before Yielding to Policy and Economics
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.24% to 1.104 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The pre-weekend rally in US shares, with the S&P 500 flirting with record highs and the back-up in US yields, set the tone for Asia Pacific trading earlier today. Nearly all the equity markets advanced, and bond yields rose. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 took a five-day advancing...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Fed’s Mid-Course Correction to be Challenged while ECB Resumes Bond Purchases
The week ahead will help shape the investment climate for the remainder of the year. The highlights include three central bank meetings (Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and the Bank of Canada). Among the high-frequency data, the US and the eurozone report the first estimates of Q3 GDP, and the US October jobs data and auto sales will be released. Investors will also get the preliminary Oct CPI for EMU. A few hours before the FOMC meeting concludes on October 30,...
Read More »FX Daily, October 25: Limping into the Weekend both Fighting and Talking
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.02% to 1.1014 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Amazon and Intel earnings offered conflicting impulses for Asia Pacific equities, but Japanese, Chinese, Australian, and South Korean shares advanced. This will allow the regional MSCI benchmark to solidify its third consecutive weekly gain. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little...
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