Tag Archives: USD

Summary: Yen is up slightly this year on an effective trade weighted basis. The euro has gained about 1% this year on an effective trade weighted basis. Sterling’s decline has been significant on an effective basis. The yuan’s decline looks to have corrected overshoot and is still holding an 11-year uptrend on the BIS real effective basis. As investors and traders, we are familiar with the developments in the...

Swiss Franc EURCHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The yen’s incredible ride this year has been recapitulated in recent days. Consider that before last weekend; the US dollar reached a little above JPY118.40. At its extreme yesterday, the dollar fell to JPY116.55.  Today it reached traded near JPY118.25 in the European morning, where...

Swiss Franc Once again a line in sand for the Swiss National Bank is broken. The EUR/CHF falls under 1.07. But trading algorithms are like this: When the EUR/USD is falling, then the EUR/CHF must follow. The SNB decided not to intervene any more at 1.07. Two potential reasons: We doubted that Swiss inflation might overtake European inflation in 2019 or 2020. Interventions at higher levels are risky, given that stock...

Summary: The Nikkei, the dollar-yen and 10 yr US yield have risen nine of the past 11 weeks. The Dollar Index and 2 yr US yields have risen while gold has sold off in eight of past 11 weeks. Issue in next two weeks, profit-taking or trend extension? Spoiler alert: I expect some profit-taking. The capital markets have been buffeted by political developments and central bank policies.  The direct influence of high...

Summary: Review of recent BIS report. US election spurred a substantial change in sentiment. Equity and bond market reactions are roughly similar to when Reagan was elected, with the dollar, at least initially, stronger than then. The Bank of International Settlement asks in its quarterly report if there has been “a paradigm shift in the markets?”   Although it does not provide an explicit answer, it does...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Some mild position squaring pressures are evident ahead of the weekend, and for many market participants the year is coming to an end. Outside of the BOJ meeting next week, the calendar turns light and markets are moving into holiday mode. The Dollar Index is seeing this week’s gains trimmed, but it is...

Summary: Biggest change is that Fed sees three instead of two hikes next year. Minor tweaks in the forecasts. Fiscal policy could raise the long-run growth potential, which would be a net good but not needed to reach full employment. As has been tipped since at September the Federal Reserve increased the Fed funds target range by 25 bp to 50-75 bp.  The market’s understanding of the Fed reaction function and the...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge Sterling has made steady gains against the CHF over the past month and although the spike has levelled this week, the Pound has certainly gained a foothold. Yesterday’s decision by the US Federal Reserve to raise their base rate from 0.25% to 0.5% did little to shift the value of GBP/CHF but with investors...

I had the privilege of joining Scarlet Fu and Joe Wisenthal on the set of What’d You Miss on Bloomberg TV yesterday afternoon. It was within a couple of hours of the second Fed rate hike in a decade.   The dollar rallied.I was surprised by the changed forecasts.  The median forecast, which is not the same thing as the Fed view, edged about 25 bp higher across the forecasting horizon. I had thought the the aspirational...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge The Pound is entering mid-December in the same fashion it begun the month after having a very strong November as well. After being buoyed by Donald Trump’s victory and the High Courts ruling that parliamentary approval is needed before invoking Article 50, the Pound has been boosted further after economic data...