Tag Archives: USD

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Median household income was higher in 2015 than in 2008, but still below 1999 peak in real terms. The bottom fifth of households by income have just recouped what was lost. Income growth did best under (Bill) Clinton and Reagan, including for top 5%. Origin of strong dollar policy means it will not be used as a trade weapon and it hasn't since Bentsen.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Shifting intermarket relationships pose challenge for investors. The market is convinced the Fed will not raise rates. Greater uncertainty surrounds the BOJ; there seems less willingness to shock and awe.

Summary: Bonds are not rallying despite poor US data. Greater chance that Trump gets elected than the Fed hikes next week. Berlin may be more important than Bratislava. (Two week business trip is winding down, leaving London tomorrow and will be in Canada for the first couple days of next week, then back to NY.  Sporadic posts to continue. Thanks for your patience) Yellow lights are flashing. Bonds remain...

Swiss Franc As happened very often, traders expected more the SNB monetary assessment. And, as usually, the franc finally appreciated because the SNB did not act. Click to enlarge. FX Rates Looking at the diary, today is the most important day of the week. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank meet. The UK reports retail sales. EMU reports CPI figures. The US reports retail sales, industrial output, and...

Summary: Global interest rates are rising. Something important is happening. It appears to be dollar positive. Price is Right – click to enlarge. The market has not changed its mind. Following Brainard’s comments yesterday the market had downgraded the chances, which were already modest, of a Fed hike next week.  The September Fed funds futures is unchanged on the day.  The implied yield of 41 bp matches the...

Swiss Franc The last ECB meeting and Dragh’s hawkish comments is for us the main reason of the euro strength, this despite stronger Swiss GDP growth. We see a mismatch between the weak ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the St. Louis and Atlanta Fed GDP trackers. Click to enlarge. Federal Reserve Our approach to Fed-watching is clear:  Among the cacophony of voices, the Troika of Fed leadership, Yellen, Fischer and...

Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF retreated today together with falling stock prices. Later during the European day, U.S. stocks recovered. When investors sell their stocks and move into cash, then the Swiss Franc very often appreciates. This is the safe haven effect: cash in Swiss Franc is perceived as more secure. Click to enlarge. FX Rates Stocks and bonds have begun the new week much like last week ended. Sharp losses...

Summary: Global bonds and global stocks ended last week on a weak note and this will likely carry into this week’s activity. The Bank of England meets, but the data may be more important. Oil and commodity prices more generally look vulnerable, and this coupled with higher yields sapped the Australian ad Canadian dollar in the second half of last week. The week ahead will likely be shaped by a combination of...

(Dublin business trip is ending, London next week, sporadic posts to continue) Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates The US dollar is lower against all the major currencies this week as North American participants close it out. On the day, the dollar is consolidating swings yesterday and is narrowly mixed. Bond yields are higher and equities are mostly lower. The euro has finished lower the last three Fridays....

[unable to retrieve full-text content]In the last two days, the euro moved upwards against CHF. Given that Swiss GDP was stronger than the one in the euro zone, this is surprising. But we must recognize that Draghi could be the reason. Inflation forecasts of 1.2% in 2017 and 1.8% in the euro zone would mean the ECB hikes rates maybe in 2018 or 2019. I personally do not believe it, given that wage inflation in Italy or Spain is clearly under 1%. This is lower than Swiss wage inflation of 0.8%.