Overview: The US dollar is firm against all the G10 currencies, except for sterling, which is straddling unchanged levels after labor market report that showed an uptick earnings remain elevated, and the unemployment rate ticked up to a new high since September 2021. The dollar reached a new six-day high against the Japanese yen near JPY157.40. The Chinese yuan (onshore) fell to new lows since last November as the mainland markets re-opened from the holiday-long...
Read More »Euro Sold After EU Parliament Elections and Macron’s Gambit
Overview: With mixed elements, the market took the US jobs data as relatively strong and took the dollar and US rates higher. The EU Parliament election has shaken up European politics, with the Belgium government collapsing and French President Macron calling a snap legislative election for the end of the month. Holidays in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia made for thinner Asia Pacific trading, but the euro was sold and has reached to one-month lows...
Read More »The Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of the Employment Report
Overview: The dollar is little changed against the major currencies ahead of the US jobs report. It has been trading heavier than we expected given that two more G10 central banks cut interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve. Next week is its meeting and the market-sensitive CPI. US rates have fallen, and as we note below, the US two-year premium over Germany is at its lowest in nearly three months. The euro is about 0.4% higher on the week ahead of the US...
Read More »Dollar Recovers from Yesterday’s Slide, but Slumps Against the Yen
Overview: The dollar’s losses scored after yesterday’s disappointing ISM manufacturing report were extended initially in Asia Pacific turnover earlier today before it recovered. The recovery has stretched the intraday momentum indicators, warning against expected strong follow-through dollar buying in North America, without fresh impetus. Amid position adjusting and crosses unwinding, the yen is resisting the dollar’s recovery and is the strongest of the G10...
Read More »Election Results Lift India But Weigh on Mexico
Overview: The dollar has returned from the weekend with a better bid tone. It is firmer against all the G10 currencies but the yen, Swiss franc, and Swedish krona, which are marginally firmer. The market seems reluctant to extend the euro or Canadian dollar upticks ahead of the central bank meetings this week, though, ironically, sterling’s 0.25% decline leads the major currencies. Election news is a key driver today. A dramatic victory for the Morena party in...
Read More »Japan Confirms Intervention, China’s PMI Disappoints, EMU CPI Firms, Ahead of US PCE Deflator
Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating yesterday's losses ahead of month-end and the US income and consumption data. The PCE core deflator may have risen by 0.2%, the least this, year, but the year-over-year rate is expected to be steady at 2.8%. The dollar is recovering from a five-day low against the yen recorded yesterday near JPY156.40 and is near JPY157.30 in the late European morning turnover. The yen's retreat and a disappointing Chinese PMI have...
Read More »Dollar Pulled Back in Europe. New Buying Opportunity?
Overview: The dollar initially extended yesterday's North American recovery but unwound most of the gains in the European morning. As North American dealers return, the greenback is lower against most of the G10 currencies. After approaching levels believed to have been where the BOJ last intervened, profit-taking pushed the dollar back to a marginal new low for the week (~JPY156.55). The yen's recovery arguably helped the Chinese yuan rise for the first time since...
Read More »The Greenback is Mostly Softer
Overview: The dollar initially extended its pre-weekend and yesterday's heavier tone before finding a better bid in the European morning. Still, as North American dealers return to their posts the dollar is still mostly softer against the G10 currencies, but it is little changed to slightly firmer against the Japanese yen. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, but the South African rand is softer ahead of their election, the Mexican peso is paring its recent...
Read More »Calmer Markets Ahead of the Weekend
Overview: The dollar is paring yesterday's advance that was spurred by the rise in US rates following the preliminary PMI, which reached its best level in two years. The survey also picked up higher prices. The dollar is in narrow trading ranges but softer against nearly all the G10 currencies today. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are laggards. Despite a large disappointing miss on UK retail sales, sterling has steadied after falling yesterday for the first time...
Read More »After Hawkish FOMC Minutes, the Dollar Comes Back Softer
Overview: The dollar was aided yesterday by the hawkish FOMC minutes and the backing up of US rates. The greenback has stabilized today and is softer against all the G10 currencies. The stronger eurozone PMI masks divergence between Germany and France but keeps the recovery narrative intact. The dollar's broad gains pressured the yuan, and the PBOC's dollar reference rate was set at its highest since January. Favorable guidance by Nvidia is helping lift US index...
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