Tag Archives: US Treasuries forecast

Modest inversion in yield curve, with recession more of an issue for 2020.After an impressive rise in US Treasury yields in 2018, we expect the upward movement in 2019 to be gradual, moderate and driven mainly by further rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). We have a year-end target of 3.4% for the 10-year Treasury yield.In light of the limited risk of a sharp rise in the 10-year yield, the relatively high coupon they now pay and the approaching end of the economic cycle, Pictet...

We are sticking with our core scenario of a 10-year Treasury yield of 2.8-3.0% by year’s end. However, the chances of a yield as low as 2.5% are rising.At the beginning of 2017, in our outlook for sovereign bonds, we forecasted that the 10-year US Treasury yield would rise to 2.8-3% by year’s end. However, yields have been stuck in a range of 2.2-2.6%, so a review looks warranted.Indeed, the risk has increased of an alternative to the core scenario, but we are sticking to our target. We...

Macroview Several factors have led us to revise downward our target 10-year U.S. Treasury rate for end 2016. Read full report hereAs we arrive close to the end of the first half of 2016, it is time to revisit our 2016 scenario for US Treasuries. Since we formulated our scenario in October 2015, giving a target 10-year US Treasury yield of 2.7% for the end of 2016, many things have changed. First, the beginning of the year saw considerable turmoil in financial markets, with negative...