Tag Archives: US PCE inflation

Leaving aside energy prices, there was only modest upward pressure on inflation in May.Rising energy prices continued to push up US inflation in May, but excluding this volatile category, underlying inflationary pressures remained tame, in contrast with the very solid labour market and above-potential GDP growth. This modest inflation picture is echoed by still-soft wage growth (below 3% y-o-y) and well-anchored consumer inflation expectations. In other words, there are still no signs that...

Healthy consumer spending figures lead us to believe that US GDP growth might actually be better than we have been forecasting. Inflation pressures look likely to remain modest for a while Real consumer spending in the US rose by a healthy 0.3% month over month in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on 29 June, beating consensus expectations. Moreover April’s number was revised up, so that between Q1 and April-May, US personal consumption grew by an astonishing 4.8%...

Core PCE, the Fed's favoured inflation gauge, remained stable 1.6% in April Read full report here As widely expected, core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation in the US came in at 1.6% in April, the same rate as in March. Overall, we continue to believe that year-on-year (y-o-y) PCE core inflation — a key price measure for the Fed — will end this year at around 1.9%, i.e. only slightly higher than the average rate registered so far this year (1.7%). The marked pick-up in...